Here is something short from my other social media accounts.
Weathervane elections forthcoming: Brazil presidential run-off, Israeli parliamentary elections, US midterms and NZ general elections. These are true tests of where voters want their countries to go. The choices are foremost about reaffirming or rejecting the Right as a governing force. These elections occur in four parts of the globe with country-specific issues needing address but one unifying, underlying question: does the (moderate) Left present a realistic and preferable alternative to Rightwing dominance of national politics in these (ostensible) democracies?
At the risk of over-simplification, here is a quick take:
I have already written here about how the NZ Left has to reframe the political narrative away from the market mantras of the last three decades. So far it has not done so, which means it is nibbling around the margins of a pie that is already cooked (in both senses of the term) rather than focusing on its ingredients and allocated portions. The Greens are trying to do that, but Labour prefers to nibble. And in spite of its obvious decay and increased price of the pie, National claims that it is perfectly edible even if it now has an (Opportunity-flavoured) teal mold tinge to it, while Act wants the pie smaller and NZ First wants it to be a different colour with less flavour ingredients.
In Brazil the question is whether to re-elect a corporate Left leader with corruption problems or a Trump-worshipping son of a convicted seditionist former president with ties to organised crime (both of them). It is about becoming a servitor imperialist vassal that submits to the “Donroe Doctrine” or remains an independent sovereign State in a highly stratified society.
In Israel it is about reaffirming or rejecting the politics of genocide and ethnic cleansing. There is more than that, of course, but above all it is a referendum on the Netanyahu-led coalition’s policies leading up to and after October 7.
In the US it is about consolidating the slide into neoimperialist kleptocratic despotism or breaking the Russian-favoring stranglehold that the MAGA Right has on US politics.
For these reasons the next three weeks are very significant in terms of electoral politics in democracies. What happens in them and what their results turn out to be will set the stage for what is to come in global politics, for better or worse.
Interesting to draw the parallels around the globe Pablo.
I for one hope the ‘left’ (for want of a better word) prevails in all these countries. Though I guess in some cases the choice is not that different between the main contenders.
It certainly will be an interesting watch, and over a very short period of time (as I write it appears Lula has prevailed in Brazil – despite earlier reports to the contrary).
PS and I think we have left out Serbia!
Interesting times. I hope the trend continues …….
Thanks Barbara.
I omitted the Serbian election and also failed to mention the student-activist led “Cockroach Movement” in India. What is interesting is that the Cockroach Movement has formed an alliance with the Gandhi dynasty-led Congress Party against PM Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP. That has allowed the CP to coopt their leaders and Modi to paint them as toadies for the old elitist Brahmin caste rather than his multi-caste Hindu base. Moreover, not only did I forget to mention the Serb elections but I also neglected to mention the inspiration that the student activist Opposition in Serbia took from the electoral defeat of Viktor Urban in Hungary.
All of this augers well for a broad Leftward shift in democratically ruled countries. I hope that Milei in Argentina is the next to fall (next year).
And – thinking of students – what about France?
And that Macron’s time as Pres. is up next year. That they are saying Marine Le Pen will replace him. Ca c’est possible ?
Ca c’est un ‘shift right’ lol
Against the trend. Pourquoi.
Barbara,
I do not see the French or Italian demonstrations in the same light as the student-led political movements in places like India or Serbia. The latter are focused on electoral politics as a means of effecting government change. The protestors in France, Italy and elsewhere in Europe are not as focused and cover a broader swathe of interests and have not coalesced around a specific party, candidate or coalition. Heck, even the “Yellow Vests” made their re-appearance on France and they clearly are not progressive. what is true is that elections will be held in France next year, Le Pen and her party are leading in the polls and could well benefit from the unrest. But given the fractious nature of French politics that is by no means certain and today’s protesters may well divide their preferences between a range of party options.
That is why I did not want to over-stretch the parallels.