Month: May 2026

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Men coming late to the party.

I was recently hospitalised and spent some time in the wards of a local hospital. For most of the stay I was in a room with 3 other men with similar ailments. We all were subject to a routine where we were prodded, pricked, measured, weighed and subject to various other indignities and small degradations on a regularly scheduled basis, including late night wake ups and trips to the loo for urine samples wearing those bare-arsed hospital gowns. We were constantly asked our names and date of birth by rotating crews of nurses, technicians and orderlies and when given medications. Doctors came around episodically, sometimes trailing junior colleagues who asked us to explain why were there as if we were children. In return we barraged them with questions about when we would be released, questions that they could not answer until all protocols had cleared and been signed off on.

On seperate occasions two of my roommates, older Maori men, objected to the constant repetition of the procedures and processes. One appeared to be a senior member of his whanau (given his visitors) and the other claimed to have been abused while in State care. Both clearly believed in defending their mana. Neither liked being ordered around by the all female, all foreign nursing and technician staff. Although there was some language hurdles, I thought that the women were actually quite polite and patient in their interactions with us. But they were firm and insistent in any event.

The men most vigorously objected to the repeated checking of basic facts (name/DOB, with the man who spoke of his time in State care mentioning that his Maori name was changed against his will into a Pakeha name while he was in State custody and the other fellow mentioning that the staff should figure out who he was by then), having given the same answers each time. As the days passed they objected to the constant taking of blood samples, temperatures, blood oxygen levels and other body status indicators, as well as being moved around for scans in other parts of the hospital. So did I, but silently. At times they refused to comply with instructions, eventually requiring the doctors to intervene in order to chart their progress.

I was completely sympathetic to their complaints because quite frankly, the routine was a pain in the rear. Plus, we all detested the food (prepared by David Seymor’s cronies at Compass, the same outfit awarded the Ministry of Health school lunch contract) and the intrusions on our sleep given how little of it we could get. For those of us in that wardroom, the thrill (such as it was) was gone.

As I listened to their complaints I realized that these men were coming late to a women’s “party.” Underneath the specifics that bothered them lie a broader phenomenon that extended beyond their individual circumstances. In the end what they were complaining about, and which they were attempting to defend against, was their bodily autonomy and the intrusions upon it. This was not just a defense of mana although it deeply involves it. As women everywhere know all too well, this is a condition where one’s body is not one’s own, but instead is subject to the manipulations and demands of others. I wondered if these men made that connection–that their plight was akin to that of women everywhere at some point in their lives–and concluded that they probably did not because their concerns were immediate and unreflective about the broader syndrome. They were living their unhappy moment, not dwelling on the deeper context in which their human agency was being infringed.

My approach to hospitalisations, much like my approach to air travel, is to not rock the boat, try to get along, suffer indignities in quiet and avoid trouble with petty tyrants in the medical hierarchy and passenger control and security infrastructure. But I have an advantage in that I am a mediocre older white guy who does not have to defend my bodily autonomy or my mana on a regular basis. For those who do, the issue could well be existential rather than a mere inconvenience, and given that perspective born of life experience, a reason to protest against otherwise seemingly small slights.

Beyond that realisation about bodily autonomy, I used the involuntary holiday in the wards as a time for reflection on my own life and what is in store for my loved ones down the road. More immediately, I witnessed a hallway fight and a death in the first ward I was assigned to (which served as a type of triage unit). My care was actually quite good but it was clear that the staff were undermanned and overworked. Most of all, although being able to leave the hospital in a somewhat vertical position was a plus, I also realized yet again that it takes extraordinary people to handle with grace and aplomb the everyday grind of dealing with very unhappy and sometimes uncooperative patients in very unfortunate circumstances not always of their own making. In other words, it seems that when it comes to intrusions on one’s personal autonomy, hospital staff also have reasons to complain. Because foreign or not, they have mana, too.

To them, I tip my hat.

And to those old guys in our wardroom defending their mana, I say good on you because what are we if we do not have our dignity to defend? To them and decent old guys everywhere I say: Kia kaha.

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Will Israel nuke Iran? Some background.

Regular reader Barbara Matthews asked me in a comment on a previous post about Israeli nukes. I replied on the comment thread on that post but have decided to flesh out the answer and post it here by way of a primer on Israel’s nuclear weapons since many people do not know much about it. Here goes:

Israel is estimated to have around 100-400 nuclear warheads (more likely closer to the lower figure). The throw weights (explosive power) of these warheads is classified but estimated to be variable but relatively low yield (20-300 kiloton (kt), with 1 kiloton=1000 tons of high explosives), along the lines of US and Russian Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) throw weights but far smaller than the megaton (one million tons of high explosive) + throw weights of US and Russian “heavy” strategic warheads. It is believed that most Israeli nukes are of the “tactical” IRBM type rather than strategic in nature.

Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is believed to have some of its nuclear weapons technology passed on to it by an Israeli spy in the US government (later imprisoned and deported to Israel) who was part of the Lakam nuclear spy ring that operated from the 1950s that helped apartheid South Africa develop a bomb and test it in 1979 over the South Indian Ocean and which supplied nuclear technology to the Argentine military dictatorship in the 1970s, plus a lot of other covert shenanigans. After years of silence and ambiguity and nebulous statements by previous government officials, Netanyahu has implied in public comments that Israel will use nukes on Iran in specific circumstances because it sees Iran as an existential threat. If so it would be the first “first strike” since Hiroshima and Nagasaki and violate the second strike retaliatory premise of modern nuclear deterrence theory.

Israel has a standard delivery system triad of air, sea and land-launched nuclear weapons. The land leg has the “heaviest” warheads that are mounted on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) known as Jericho-1 and Jericho-2s that potentially can reach distant adversaries such as North Korea. I do not know but assume that Israel has MIRV (Multiple Re-Entry Vehicle) technologies in its nuclear fleet, presumably for the heavier warhead-bearing platforms like the Jerichos.

Its main nuclear research and development facilities are at Dimona in the Negev desert, which also serves as a civilian power generating facility that, besides the power generation aspect, produces around 20 kg of Plutonium each year as waste that is directed to the weapons program. 5-6kg of Plutonium is needed for a 20 kiloton warhead, so there are constraints in the Israeli weapons production process, especially for larger-yield warheads. By wy of comparison, the Hiroshima bomb had 15 kilotons of throw weight while the Nagasaki bomb had 20-22 kt of explosive power.

The use of Plutonium is interesting for several reasons. First, its is by-product of nuclear energy production so is not enriched uranium such as those used in both civilian energy (<20–usually 3-5 precent– enriched) production and most advanced nuclear weapons programs (90 percent enriched U235). It is also very unstable and dirty when compared to enriched uranium, which means that besides the risk of accidental chain reactions, the radioactive cloud and plume from a detonation will be far more lethal than those produced by more refined nuclear weapon detonations. That means that detonations in the air at any altitude and on the surface will generate plumes that will then drift hundreds of miles traveling on the prevailing winds, contaminating everything. along the way.

In the case of Iran, Israel would presumably use “bunker-busting” deep penetration missiles to destroy Iran’s nuclear stockpiles and delivery platforms widen deep underground. That might minimise or partially contain the fallout contamination that follows such strikes. But Israel has shown little regard for civilian casualties when levelling Gaza, Lebanese neighbourhoods and parts of the West Bank as well as Iran itself, so we cannot discount the possibility that it might use air- or surface-burst weapons, including against civilian targets (these are known as counter-value strikes) as well as “hardened” military targets (known as counter-force strikes).

In my opinion, there is at least a 50-50 chance that Israel will use nukes against Iran if this conflict does not go the way that Netanyahu’s regime wants it to go, especially of the US–yet again– loses interest and withdraws from the conflict as midterm elections approach and GOP political fortunes turn South as commodity prices continue to rise, etc.

If I were to be charitable I would say that unlike the US, which sees Iran as hostile but containable, sort of like North Korea, Israel views Iran as a threat to its very existence. Why? Not because of nukes but because hardliners in Iran have repeatedly uttered serious anti-semitic as well as anti-Zionist rhetoric towards the Jewish state. The former include grotesque stereotypes and caricatures, betraying a profound and twisted hatred of Jews as a people rather than Israel as a nation-State. In light of that Israel wants to eliminate Iran as a functioning State and partition it into various ethnic nationalities in which Persians are just one of many, albeit a dominant group in whatever demographic mosaic is constructed out of the ashes of the Revolutionary Republic. That removes Iran as a threat to Jewish, not just Israel’s existence.

If I were to not be charitable I would say that Bibi and co. just want to degrade but not destroy Iran so as to keep it as a convenient scapegoat and enduring threat that helps them justify their rogue actions and avoid having to account for their own crimes and atrocities. In that perspective, it is the tail that wags the imbecile dog that is the MAGA administration, but that dog is about to turn tail for domestic political reasons in the US and at that point the spectre of Israeli nukes against Iran becomes real.

One other factor must be considered in Israel’s strategic equation to launch such strikes: who will retaliate against Israel in the event that it does engage in the first use of nuclear weapons against Iran, much less retaliate in kind with a nuclear counter-strike? Quite frankly, I do not see anyone being capable or willing to do so.

The “Doomsday Clock” run by the Association of Atomic Scientists already sits at 85 seconds before midnight, the closest it has ever been to nuclear armageddon day, and that was set before the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

The moment of deadly truth may be fast approaching.

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No Bread, all Circus on the Potomac.

A well-worn truth about regimes in crisis is that as their failures mount, internal fractures emerge and external opposition grows, they resort to diversions and distractions in order to maintain their grip on power. The more that they are in trouble, the more outlandish become the “lookee here” and arm-waving at shiny objects and glittery glitz. The Romans had a phrase to describe this phenomenon, which is often the terminal phase of a regime in crisis: “bread and circus” (which referred to the mass spectacles performed in Colosseums and the distribution of bread to citizens as things otherwise got worse for them). In Argentina during my youth, the Peronists turned this tactic on its head and offered demi-johns of red wine along with large loafs of French bread to people assembled at their rallies and demonstrations when they were in office as well as when in opposition (when able to do so). In both instances, the popular feel-good moment often presaged darker times for those in power–and their countries as well.

It appears that the MAGA administration has reached that phase. But there is a twist to this tale. There is no bread in the MAGA distraction. Instead there are higher domestic commodity prices thanks to Trump’s tariff regime; higher fuel and fuel derivative prices thanks to the US/Israeli war of aggression against Iran and the consequent closing of the Straits of Hormuz; a bloated federal deficit due to tax breaks for rich individuals and corporations even with reductions in the federal budget for non-defence expenditures; stagnated incomes and employment levels for most wage earners; culture war weirdness seeping into the education system, arts institutions and research centres; the proliferation of sports and ” predictive” betting and dodgy get-rich-quick schemes that encourage insider trading by elites and masses alike; all wrapped up in increased domestic repression in the form of ICE and its adjacent “law enforcement” agencies.

Rather than bread, the US is offered crumbs.

Then what about the circus? Unlike the absence of bread, the MAGA movement is full of circus. On top of all the other outrages, graft, corruption, excess, incompetence and crass coarseness of the Trump administration, two recent events exemplify this in bold relief.

The first is the passing of an Immigration Bill by the GOP -controlled Congress that includes US$ 1 billion earmarked for the new White House ballroom that Trump has fixated on and for which he promised only private funds would be used (after razing the historical landmark that was the East Wing of the White House without congressional consultation or approval, as per law). Trump and the GOP argue that the recent purported attempt on Trump’s life at the White House Correspondents dinner (the assailant did not make into the ballroom where Trump was located) justifies the expense in the name of security even though the White House already has multiple security layers that start outside the perimeter fences enclosing the complex’s grounds and continue into the buildings themselves. Plus, US$1 billion is a bit much even for a three story structure that will dwarf the White House itself (recognising that the White House is a 18th century-sized neo-classical-style mansion that is small and quaint by modern standards). This is pork barrel politics at its finest.

In sane societies with rational democratic elected leaders, the appropriation of US $1 billion in taxpayer money to fund what was supposed to be a privately-financed ballroom for a vainglorious president in an election year (midterms are in November, with all of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate having seats contested, as well numerous governorships and other political offices throughout the country) would appear to be an act. of political suicide. But the US is no longer a sane society run by rational people. Instead, it has become a divided amalgam of decent people having to coexist with a hard core voting third of racists, xenophobes, hypocrites, opportunists, charlatans and grifters using the foundational narrative of “greatness” and “freedom” to cloak their selfish ambitions and (not so) private prejudices. Conservative support for the ballroom and its political underpinnings are a shining illustration of that.

The circus does not stop with a garish ballroom. In a few days the White House will host a cage fighting card on the White House South Lawn. Not a cricket match, not a tennis match, not a chess match, not polo, not basketball, not gymnastic, not fencing or ice skating, not any sort of game or sport that conveys dignity and sophistication in competitive endeavour.

No. Instead, we will be treated to the spectacle of steroid-laden brutes bashing each other into bloody submission inside an actual chainlink cage as if they were modern-era gladiators entertaining the Roman hordes (4000 spectators will be ringside on the South Lawn and millions of others are anticipated by the White House to be watching on the Washington Monument grounds across from the South Lawn and on global media outlets). Trump will be ringside but could also be the MC, depending on his mood. The prime seats will be reserved for his acolytes and associates in the political, business and religious worlds. Despite their expensive finery, they and the rest of the MAGA mob will revel in their bloodlust, shouting, cheering, booing and baying like hounds at the stylised but real violence. Given their limited historical knowledge, someone in the Trump administration–perhaps Pete “Keg”seth given that he has recent form in this regard–will make grandiose comparisons to Gladiators by referencing the movie of that name, not the actual historical era in which they were part of the Roman circus..

To finish with this Roman motif, think of contemporary Washington DC as Rome before the Fall. The MAGA movement is Rome, Trump is its Caesar, the GOP are its praetorian guard, the Potomac is its Tiber River, and its downfall is inevitable not because it will be overrun by a modern-day equivalent of the Huns, but because it is collapsing from within as I write. It may take some time, but the rot has well and truly set in and there will be a day coming in the not-to-distant future when we look at whatever emerges from the rubble of the White House East Wing (and perhaps that Arc de Trump, aka the “United States Triumphal Arch,” that he is proposing for a site looking across from the Eastern banks of the Potomac River towards Arlington National Cemetery) as something akin to the Colosseum itself–a relic of a time when excess overcame taste, and where vacuous venality lorded over ethics and civility.

It would be fitting if the Trump/MAGA legacy turned out to be a case of figuratively fiddling while the country burned. Let’s hope so because at least out of ashes can come regeneration. The US sorely needs that.