I do not mean to be pedantic about this sort of thing, but since it lies within my area of supposed “expertise,” here goes:
Unlike what is being reported in the corporate media and by some defense officials, the Israeli strike on Iran was not “pre-emptive.” “Pre-emptive” means “a sudden strike thwarting an imminent attack.” That is not the case here. Iran was not about to imminently attack Israel. What Israel has done is a preventive attack designed to degrade Iran’s nuclear R&D/storage facilities, missile launcher sites and command and control capabilities. The IDF attack is focused on preventing and delaying development of Iran’s nuclear strike capability before it reaches operational status and was telegraphed in advance (remember the US pulling out embassy staff and military families from facilities in the Middle East this week). Both suspected weapons-grade nuclear stores as well as launching platforms were on the target list, as were those responsible for them.
The preventive nature of the move may help moderate the Iranian response. On the other hand, killing the Revolutionary Guard Commander and Deputy Commander is a serious affront that will require a response in order for the Iranian regime to save face among its domestic audiences. So the escalation scenario is real, albeit not as bad as it could be. What is clear is that unlike preemptive attacks, the Israeli preventive attack has no justification in the Laws of War (jus ad bellum) and is therefore illegal under International law. One might understand why the Israelis conducted the strikes and there is plenty of precedent for them, but that does not make them legal.
Just like his response to October 7 with the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank, Netanyahu has seized his moment of opportunity because, quite frankly, he can. No one will stop him (certainly not the Iranians) and the US backs him, with most of the West tacitly supporting Israel with their silence or tepid responses to the conflict. This, I suspect, is due to Israel’s value as an intelligence partner of the West as much as any other reason.
Let’s see how this plays out….