Dark Parallels.

Here is a thought that I originally posted as social media commentary:

The Epstein client list epitomises the decline of liberal internationalism. The list is a who’s who of (mostly Western) liberal internationalist leaders: billionaires, bankers, Silicon Valley tech moguls, athletes, academics, royalty, fashion entrepreneurs, politicians, philanthropists, diplomats, former presidents and prime ministers, special envoys, international organization leaders, sundry oligarchs and industrial magnates, etc. Other than some decadent Arabs, no tin-pot Latin American, African or Asian dictators are to be found amongst them. They were/are a E Suite aggregation and living embodiment of the liberal international order taken to excess, a epiphenomenal reflection of the institutional decay that infected the entire postcolonial, post WW2 edifice once the Cold War ended.

They traded in money, power, status, influence and darker things. It was their step into darkness that toppled them. Otherwise they would still be networking as usual and their sordid hypocrisy–enlightened and rationalist on the outside, greedy, privileged and perverted on the inside– continue unabated. Theirs was a culture of impunity destroyed by venal over-reach.

Likewise, liberal internationalism as a global ordering device fell due to its own internal decay, corruption, sclerosis and contradictions, not from the actions of external actors (although some may have pushed from the margins). The behaviour of liberal institutions like the World Bank, IMF, WEF and assorted subject and regionally focused agencies belied their ostensible universalist and humanitarian goals. In other words, the downfall of liberal internationalism is self-induced. That includes democratic governance in the West, which has been in decline for well over a decade due to its lack of responsiveness to public demands and capture by elite-driven special interests.

Like the Epstein investigation, the post-liberal international order must begin with an evaluation of its institutional architecture and the flaws inherent in it. From that can come an improved edifice better prepared to confront the global challenges that lie ahead in a more equitable and inclusive fashion. Because in an age of AI, robotics and nanotechnological crossover that knows no national borders and where post-industrial knowledge economies are the wave of the future where the privilege of Empire no longer applies, an International system made for and by Anglo-Saxon white males no longer is suited for, much less capable of dominating, the demands and pressures emanating from those who are not part of that demographic. In a time in history where things like climate change impacts and commercial and military use of space and deep sea environments are tangible and real, there is urgency to the needs for institutional transition.

Hint: the interests of the Global South (understood as a post-colonial ideological construct, not a geographic designation) need to be accommodated in a more equitable honest way.

Veil of hypocrisy, lifted.

As I think about how to frame the opening episode of the relaunched “A View from Afar” podcast next week, I find myself wondering about silver linings. The current international moment is very dark and the end of the liberal order is nearing, but surely there must be some good shining amid the gloom. I think I have found one such glimmer, perhaps not of hope but of honesty in how one country represents itself before the world–and perhaps by extension, how the West sees or should see itself.

Readers may remember that last year I wrote about Trump believing himself to be the “Great Disruptor” and agent of change in the world. His advisors and acolytes seized on this self-perception to whisper chaos theory-based sweet nothings into his ears about carving out spheres of influence (for the US, in a Western Hemisphere that extends to Greenland) that he is willing to divide up with Russia and the PRC. He believes in annexing the sovereign territory of other states (including Canada), renaming international geographic landmarks (like the Gulf of Mexico), authorising the murder of civilians on the high seas and kidnapping of the authoritarian president of a foreign state on trumped up drug charges while leaving even worse dictators unscathed because they are “friendly,” blockading an island State out of ideological spite, and interfering in the elections of foreign countries by using direct foreign aid as a weapon of reward or retaliation. It does not matter if the view is simplistic, wrong in its theoretical grounding and practical application, and ultimately more of a fever dream than a practicable reality when extended over time, but however deluded it is his belief system and he acts upon it with the complicity of the MAGA/GOP establishment currently in control of the US government. And because the US government wields extraordinary coercive powers, both economic and military, it is dangerous.

It is apparent that Trump’s mental abilities have diminished considerably in recent times, but his advisors continue to blow sunshine up his skirt and oil him with grandiose ideas that are designed to stroke his ego, promote his brand and enlarge his bank accounts while serving their overlapped agendas (Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller and Peter Navarro are notable in this regard). From what I can discern, they encourage him to free range when it comes to speaking at domestic political rallies and campaign events, but then urge his caregivers to lace him up with the mother of all pharmaceutical cocktails when he has to give speeches to serious audiences such as foreign diplomats, business magnates and international statesmen in global fora. When compared with the stream of consciousness rants that he uses on domestic partisan audiences, with some exceptions his tone at these international meetings becomes more subdued, he speaks in a monotone, behaves semi-civilly and generally gives the appearance of situational detachment from the realities of the moment and consequences of what he is saying. If only we were to have access to his medication list and schedule!

Returning to the glimmer of light, it begins in darkness. It turns out that the US is indeed the core of the international system and Trump is the vortex that is drawing the old order into the black hole of systemic dissolution. One only needs to see the Trump ripple effects–he is the rock thrown into the centre of the global pond–to acknowledge his impact on domestic politics and international relations across the world. He is a malignant, evil force but he is also an irresistible object, a rip tide of ignorance, banality, self-interested corruption and narcissism using US power as the current against which all other global actors must now sink or swim. Fortunately, although undeniably strong, his hubristic ignorance weakens the US gravitational pull on the world scene.

There is good in this. For nearly a century the US has claimed to be the leader of the “free” world, the champion of democracy, upholder of human rights and defender of the innocent, weak and powerless. The reality is that it is a nation-state founded on racist beliefs standing on stolen lands by white property (and slave) owning men, using laws and institutions that promoted patriarchical heterosexist privilege over everything else. It took a civil war to abolish slavery and then another century to enact the Civil Rights Act that granted “equal” status to African Americans. It took over fifty years before females of age earned the right to vote, and long after that restrictions on the franchise remained in place (like poll taxes, residency and language requirements, forfeiture of voting rights due to criminal convictions even if for minor offences, etc. ). It systematically discriminated against waves of immigrants, be the Italian, Irish, Asian, Mexican and now those coming from the African and Latin American diaspora. It pushed indigenous tribes off their lands and onto reservations. Forced segregation was replaced by self-segregation, which is still a thing in many places. So is socioeconomic class stratification, gerrymandering, voter suppression (much more than fraud) and deliberate dumbing down of and distraction from obvious social contradictions on the part of the public majority. One percent of the population control eighty percent of the wealth. Christian nationalist-fascism, long thought to be on the wane, has a stranglehold on one side of the US ideological divide and skews public debates about cultural mores and social ethics. And yet the US public still believes, or at least until Trump entered office, to be living in the land of the free and home of the brave.

What is good is that Trump has ripped the veil off of that foundational myth. He has revealed the US for what it is even if he and others do not want to admit it: a venal, bloated, self-absorbed authoritarian husk of a democratic Great Power. It never was any of things that it claimed to be but for a while it at least tried to improve or pretended to be better than it was, harking to the idealism of some of its founders who held a belief in the perfectibility of humankind. It took time and struggle, but the myth tells us that the US was getting better as a society and as a political construct. But it never was and now certainly is not a truly liberal democracy. Yet it took Trump to debunk the myth.

The myth was, if not a lie, more of a pipe dream than an achievable reality. So it is good that Trump has exposed the true nature of US society and better yet, rendered transparent the contradictions and fractures that undermine its increasingly brittle institutional edifice. Or to paraphrase my father, “when the wanna-be dictator starts naming everything after himself and painting everything in gold leaf, he reveals his true intent.”

The same applies to US foreign relations. It is the core of the international system, but that was the OLD liberal internationalist order that is currently being destroyed by the gravitational pull of the Trump dark hole. Again, the US used to claim that it was the “leader of the free world” etc., but today it is anything but. It is a neo-imperialist declining Great Power, once hegemonic after the Cold War but now more like an old athlete shouting “I used to be somebody” into the winds of time. The US has broken the global order but it is incapable of dominating what comes next. It is more akin to the death grasp of a drowning man, locked into a hopeless situation beyond its control and overcome by circumstance of its own and other’s making. So it thrashes about as it slips under, pulling anything it can get a hold of down with it. It now has the liberal internationalist order in its grasp.

Over the short term, as I have written at some length before, a declining Great Power is dangerous. It is more likely to start wars in order to preserve its position in the global status quo. But declining powers may be able to start wars but then are unable to finish them on their preferred terms. Instead, they are defeated by rising powers or, in what appears to be crystallising at the moment in response to Trump’s foreign policy adventurism, a polycentric constellation of established and emerging technopoles rooted in the Global South that use soft power as a counter-weight to US bullying. This is more than the BRICS and although critical minerals are the new gold of world technological economies, it is knowledge economies, knowledge production and commodified knowledge accumulation that will fuel the growth of the Global South and the ascendent Great Powers coming from within it.

The US is too socially divided, too inward-looking, too partisanly governed, too corrupt and too incompetent as political managers to meet the challenges of the emerging polycentric technopolar world. It lives on grievance, internal culture wars, fabricated problems, selectively applied situational ethics, denial of responsibility, contrived outrage and clickbait self-absorption in a culture where “influencers” are given more respect than neuroscientists and astrophysicists, and where modern bread and circus acts have replaced the fine arts as the currency of popular culture. All of this is epitomised by the MAGA regime.

Thanks to Trump, all of that is now made transparent. There is no pretence of “public interest” or “commonweal,” just naked self-interest, transactional bartering, bullying and opportunism posing as government for both domestic and foreign audiences. We finally see the US, or at least that part that is MAGA in orientation, for what it really is.

So it is that with Trump lifting the veil of hypocrisy from the self-proclaimed US position, we can now fully see that it is a two sided coin where the domestic side is marked by increased prejudice and avaricious authoritarianism and the foreign side is overtly neo- imperialist. There are certainly many decent people fighting against this in the US, but the dye has been cast and neither the US or the international system will be the same once Trump has left the scene. That should give the rest of the world pause to reflect on what might constitute a post-liberal world order and perhaps for some in the post-imperial West to draw parallels between themselves and the giant in its decline.

“A View from Afar” podcast relaunch: Monday February 23, 12PM noon NZ time/Sunday February 22, 6PM US East Coast time.

Media Link: “A View from Afar” returns.

For those who may be interested, my buddy Selwyn Manning and I have decided to revive the “A View from Afar” podcast next week.

There is so much going on in the world the days, most of it bad sad to say, but our geopolitical angle perched down in the deep South Pacific may be different than some other perspectives for those who live in other parts of the world (and perhaps surprising to some who live in this neck of the woods)..

The show airs Monday February 23 at 12:00PM NZ time and Sunday February 22 6:00PM US East Coast time. It streams live on YouTube and various streaming platforms and then will be on demand. Just look for the title of the show wherever you listen/watch podcasts.

The first show highlights the death knell of the liberal international order and the US role in ringing that bell. Here is a summary tease of what is in store:

“The sad fact, though, is that the US is the center of our earthly geopolitical universe, serving as the first rock to drop in the global pond whose ripple effects are extensive, negative, and washing up in unexpected and unforeseen ways. That rock, in fact, is a black hole sucking the remnants of the rules-based order into oblivion, or if not oblivion, irrelevance in a new age of power politics (might makes right, etc.). It is a dark force from which things as they exist cannot return.”

See you then!

When the opponent goes high, you go low.

No, this is not what you think. It is not about morality or ethics, as in taking the “high road” or “low road” in partisan debates. I am more of a “politics is war by other means” type of person so my adherence to the Clausewitzian axiom reversed perspective pretty much dictates how I view the situational ethics involved when it comes to political cut and thrust. But that is a discussion for another day.

Instead, this is a tale of two stories. One immediate and material, the other a blast from the past by way of tactical advice.

More immediately, after years of living comfortably with older gadgets and machines, in recent years I have bought a modern car and a smart phone. I used to drive manual transmission vehicles that could accomodate my sporting gear (wagons and 4WDs, mostly). But I married a person who does not drive but wants to, so we traded in for an automatic transmission vehicle. I hated it but she felt that it would make her learning to drive easier. That proved somewhat true but I always felt a sense of loss of control because I could not downshift and clutch brake as I had done for many years. In any event, within the last year our family vehicle needs expanded what with the pre-adolescent in the house, so we bought a newer 4WD vehicle with all sorts of gadgets–rear cameras, proximity sensors, all sorts of screens, switches, dials and settings, self-adjusting mirrors and lights, multi-positional electronic seats, etc. It is all fine and dandy, but as I said to the automobile salesperson, I feel like I am in an airplane cockpit at times. In fact, I get distracted by instrumentation that did not exist 15 years ago. All to just get from point A to point B (my racing car enthusiast days ended many moons ago). In any event I am getting used to the amenities even if I still do miss the old pedal press-and-shift days.

Even more recently I was forced to buy a smart phone. My service provider, and in fact most all NZ service providers, are moving away from 3G networks and to 4-5G systems. My old 3G compatible circa-2000 phone, which was only good for text and calls and which did not even have an operating GPS, had to be replaced by the end of next month. Now I have a gadget that talks, changes colours, offers reminders and gives directions, takes videos, surfs the internet, offers me a zillion absolutely mindless “apps” as well as a few useful ones, and is, as I am sure you well know, a hand-held computer. If I could only get my pudgy fingers to accurately hit keyboard keys and links I might be able to actually use the darn thing for more than–you guess it–calls and texts. Because that is all that I needed.

The salesperson whom we dealt with to upgrade my phone said it was more a museum piece than a functional gadget in this day and age. That was exactly the point of having it. Let me explain.

At a time and a place long ago I held a position in a government security agency that had a keen interest in a hostile country (truth be told, the hostility was more ours than theirs). As part of the job , my duties included analysing intelligence streams about that country from assorted dedicated agencies, including what are known as “signals and technical” (sigint/techint) intelligence agencies. These agencies use various technologies to acquire information from designated targets, including infrared and thermal signatures, satellite imagery, acoustic eavesdropping, electronic tapping and hacking and a number of other non-human acquisition platforms (I was more connected to the human intelligence side of things due to my non-technical expertise but in that particular job was the consumer of signet/techint flows because it played a policy-making role).

Signals and technical intelligence collection happens from space to the seafloor. It is quite literally a full spectrum, multi-dimensional enterprise. It covers tapping/hacking into bulk data flows like those in undersea fiberoptic cables now being targeted in the Baltic Sea (such as via the PRISM program exposed by Edward Snowden) to individual cell phones and laptops possessed by targeted people and agencies (be they public, private, non-governmental, religious, etc.).

When I assumed that governmental role I was briefed on its intelligence capabilities in that country. What I found was interesting, to say the least. At that time, all of the human intelligence agents in the country had been revealed to be working as double agents for its government, so we were being fed bogus information while they received precise and detailed information about networks, sources and methods. That problem took years to rectify and led to some spectacular sequels years later.

With no reliable human intelligence (known as “nonofficial cover”) assets in the country, we were forced to rely exclusively on signet/techint capabilities, of which we had many of high degrees of sophistication, both near and far from targets. Among these were acoustic sensors and intercepts designed to pick up conversations by the senior leadership of the country. The leadership was a very small circle of confidants and insiders led by two people in particular, so we put a lot of effort into listening to them. We were pretty good at that, and I got to know waaaaay too much about the bathroom and bedroom habits of some of those targeted individuals.

However, we could never get a bead on the private conversations of the two main leaders even though we had their offices under acoustic and visual surveillance (the latter can be used for lip-reading purposes, among other things). That baffled us until we began to more closely study their daily routines and habits. Among them was a weekly, sometimes more than weekly, lunchtime walk by the two main principals to plazas within walking distance of the main government building where their offices were located. Once at these locations they would sit on park benches a few dozen meters across from each other while their security details discreetly cleared space around them. They cleared space not so much as a crowd control exercise because although my government saw these leaders as the enemy, their people did not (at least at that time). So it was not unusual for members of the public to walk up to the leaders and hug them, shake their hands and engage in conversation with them. The leaders usually left time for that, but at some point they needed quiet and space in order to have their own private conversations. It was a type of hiding in plain sight exercise.

Once the security guys moved people away from their respective park benches (and that was not hard to do since this walking routine was familiar to residents of the streets around the government offices and had become an accustomed sight), the leaders would take out cheap walkie-talkies sold as a children’s toy and speak to each other that way about highly sensitive matters. Since we had no lip reading assets in their vicinity (who would have been uncovered anyway), and out signing/techint means did not extend to or pick up the frequencies of the walkie-talkies in those locations, we remained deaf to their chats for years.

Which brings me to the moral of this story. When I asked the signet/techint agency specialists why this was an effective counter-intelligence tactic, they responded by saying that “when we go high tech, they go low tech.” They explained that if you really want to keep something secret in this (then!) day and age, you have a conversation and commit it to memory, not paper and certainly not to digitalised data. A note or letter that can be destroyed is a second-best option, old fashioned land lines are a third best option (because the tap on the phone line had to be physical and relatively close to the phone in question), and then resorting to what is known as espionage tradecraft (dead drops, unwitting messengers carrying information in different guises, etc.), would have to suffice. But the latter is not apt for official government communications unless that government is under serious siege (perhaps like Venezuela or Iran recently).

A an aside, some of the idiocy that is now on display in Washington DC is apparent in the lack of communications security awareness by senior government officials. The use of apps like Signal and Telegram by such people displays a grotesque disregard for basic common sense, much less situational awareness of the perils of using social media to conduct business about matters of State. I guess walkie talkies are not available at their locations.

My old cell phone was one such low tech device. It could not be followed, it could not geo-locate, it could not accept apps, it did not do email or internet. In a word, it was a”dumb” phone that I held in my hand. I liked it that way because even though I do not have State secrets to share, I do not like the idea of commercial actors like telecommunications companies acquiring and then selling my personal data just because I need to use the bloody phone and require use of their devices in order to do so. As it is, I am already getting bombarded by advertising and links suggestions just because I added my social media accounts (just two of them) to my new phone. That sucks.

Which brings me back to the original purpose of this post. Whether your approach to politics is to go high or to go low, when it comes to modern day telecommunications, take a tip from that old adversary of my former government by keeping your most sensitive thoughts off high tech platforms no matter how convenient they are (this is true for those who use VPNs as well, as that only partially disguises address and data flows but not the entirety of communication patterns for those with the knowledge and capabilities to decrypt or decode them). It may seem quaint, but if you must save things in writing, best to write a poem or letter on paper instead. Because file cabinets and desk drawers can still serve a purpose other than as computer stands or old junk repositories.

In the end convenience comes at a cost, and that cost is measured by the price of your privacy being made publicly available by the owners of the technologies that now control our daily routines.