when i take metformin i feel really sick metformin 500 mg dan kehamilan propranolol 80 mg angst best way to quit zoloft best dose of zoloft for depression cheap cialis in uk precio finasteride 1mg average rounds of clomid to get pregnant tadalafil prescription uk does accutane cause tooth decay duphaston 10 mg clomid stores that sell viagra in houston purchase azithromycin or doxycycline nike shoes online canada cheap viagra contiene tadalafil 20 mg cialis case marketing is it ok to take viagra fedex viagra canadian 100 viagra 100mg cheap inderal 10 mg twice a day training price of tadalafil accutane 20 mg twice a day medication ireland viagra factory can you take viagra twice in one day oligomenorrhea treatment clomid reviews brake specialist in 75234 cialis bathtub logo buy nolva clomid pct metformin 500 mg er tabs cialis soft generico online pain specialists in san joaquin co ca viagra over the counter tescos quero comprar um cytotec what is brand name of doxycycline hyclate how many mgs of viagra should i take prednisone burst 50 mg dosage can clomid cause severe bloating cialis daily buy online generic clomid 10 pills existe viagra de 25 mg indian price of viagra tablets counterfit cialis doxycycline hyclate acne dosage low dose doxycycline and birth control ciprofloxacin 200 mg i v price of amoxil 125mg for kids viagra generic 50 mg can taking metformin cause hypoglycemia in pregnancy online kopen van propecia ciprofloxacino medicamento generico avapro cialis 20 mg 8 film tablet how many viagra do you take buy cheap generic viagra online for 0 95 each refresh liquigel inactive ingredients in metformin 200 mg doxycycline one dose for std efectos usar viagra generic accutane for older adults buy cialis in lilly packaging where to buy viagra shoppersdrug mart can i buy accutane farmaco generico propecia coupon propecia online retina australia brandalley kuwas viagra ciprofloxacina tabletas 400 mg beneficios y contraindicaciones del viagra online nevriye budak cialis over the counter ciprofloxacine mylan 500 mg posologie is womens viagra available online tick bite 200 mg doxycycline hyclate zovirax price compare priligy dokteronline should finasteride be taken at night price of viagra per pill generic viagra vendors buy viagra in shop in grimsby india viagra manufacturers is doxycycline from india safe viagra spokeswoman who in blue dress deprax 100 mg 60 comprimidos viagra how to purchase finasteride proscar and propecia what is different 10 m 20 mm and 50 mg cialis cialis daily quanto costa metformin cost in the philippines can get propecia uk prednisolone nycomed 25 mg hunde best way to order cialis online liquid clomid and nolvadex pct clindahexal 600 mg dosierung ciprofloxacin how to wean off 200 mg zoloft lasix eye surgeons in omaha nebraska best generic viagra pharmacy ferrari sildenafil tablets 130 mg thc when to take ovulation test with clomid viagra kaufen in ungarn what is for doxycycline 100 mg for cellulitis frijol de soya donde comprar viagra accutane higher dose better metformina hidrocloruro 850 mg can you take a viagra and cialis together doxycycline over counter australia propecia versus rogaine ampicillin brand name philippines ampicillin dose pprom how much it cost for cialis finasteride how much does it cost can get accutane online buy cheap cialis online uk visa amoxil 850 mg bula ciprofloxacin hcl 500 mg tab dosage ontario physician specialized in prednisone withdrawel best time to take prednisolone cipro in pediatrics metformin use in lada will 6 500 mg doses of zithromax kill stds real viagra usa discount cialis online 24 is 200mg of viagra safe locked in syndrome viagra sito affidabile cialis generico cialis generic 5 mg sildenafil 50 mg efectos mujer junel fe 28 day generic viagra prednisone 20 mg westward cipro registrations online whats best result 50 mg or 25mg viagra java class assubclass generic viagra buy viagra reviews viagra generico tempo de efeito when should u take clomid ebay australiaviagra propecia in women how to take doxycycline to treat chlamydia directions in taking ciprofloxacn 500 mg tab nort doxycycline in sinusitis cialis 20 mg every 3 days accidently took 400 mg zoloft sildenafil citrate in lahore how to order cialis online in south africa how long does 5mg cialis work viagra likedrug in homeopathy sensibit tabletas 10 mg prednisone order tadalafil from india cialis argentina donde comprar agua zoloft dosage 300 mg prednisolone liquid inactive ingredients in prilosec buying real viagra in mexico can generic viagra cure performance anxiety donde comprar viagra en mexico d f can you buy viagra over the counter in s africa plaunazide 20 mg 12 5mg cialis clomid and novadex for sale accutane shop online cialis and viagra canada silagra pharmacy brand name viagra cumwithuscom how many prednisone 5 mg tablets should you dispense donde comprar viagra bs purchase research chemicals tadalafil pills price of metformin cialis prix lyon para se usa metformin 500 mg cipro costumi where can i buy viagra in swindon phenoral 50 mg zoloft use of glimepiride metformin can you buy viagra in nz models use accutane generic viagra contains sildenafil citrate what strength viagra to take glucophage 500 mg composition buy propranolol er online viagra generico chile dr simi ciprofloxacino 500 mg injetavel 1000 mg metformin pcos cheap reliable cialis metformin for endometrial cancer in non obese zoloft increased to 100 mg female cialis wiki usa socialist programs counterfeit zithromax azithromycin viagra for men south africa price 10 mg prednisone taper schedule difference in cialis 20 mg and 5mg viagra einzeln online bestellen kann mein hausarzt viagra verschreiben nolvadex pct prices liquid tadalafil dosage chart over the counter viagra substitute at rite aid what does viagra cost at wal mart predsim bula generico de cialis tesco tadalafil 10mg prices cytotec over the counter ontario migraine specialists in lima ohio finasteride small dose bph treated with cialis diflucan 400 mg viagra substitutes over the counter in uae migraine specialist in redding ca varillas de radiestesia donde comprar viagra inderal 10 mg flashback viagra discount viagra prescription s tesco pharmacy london viagra inderal 40 mg prezzo warren where in australia can viagra be bought cialis 40 mg buy real cytotec dapoxetine 30 mg in bangladesh bengali cialis generico mx 0.25 mg propecia every second day xbox 360 colombia donde comprar viagra is mail order viagra safe sildenafil citrate us overnight delivery figueira da india comprimidos viagra viagra for men under 40 in ahmedabad india propecia stop receding hairline buy ciprodex otic suspension no rx diflucan in timpul sarcinii buy viagra newzealand diflucan anfd yeast treatment in toddler is viagra in a pub trust org comprar cialis spain zoloft and 100 mg how long were to buy viagra in oman cheap accutane for sale viagra in coronary artery disease doxycycline crush in cat food cialis online 200 mg ciprocinal 500 mg upotreba viagra glucophage xr 500mg in pregnancy erofast sildenafil 50 mg onde comprar clomid 50mg how to take in urdu accutane really bad comprar viagra andorra sin receta medica can i buy viagra in the dominican republic buy viagra subligual in bangkok viagra in galway i want to buy viagra in america blonde actress in acura cialis can you find viagra in morocco private prescription cost cialis zoloft dosage for ocd starnoc 20 mg cialis ciprofloxacin syrup in bangladesh current propranolol generico de crestor accutane after stopping treatment visadron bijsluiter viagra viagra vs once a day cialis cost where we can buy viagra in dubai can you take cialis and amoxicillin where to buy cheap cialis in uae low dose accutane 20 mg taking 40 mg cialis sildenafil for sale in paso robles donde puedo comprar cytotec sin receta en honduras cialis orders paypal paid nolvadex 10 mg astrazeneca india meloxicam methocarbamol generico de cialis diflucan vs azo buy propecia online without prescription raw types in generics for accutane buy propecia and minoxidil together allegron 25 mg of zoloft what over the counter drug similar to lasix are propecia and finpecia same finasteride 1 mg traitement pharmacy in malaysia selling cialis can a patient take zithromax twice in 2 months how long after a meal can you take viagra lasix in hyponatremia lb medium ampicillin viagra tablet pakistan price cheap viagra 100 ml for .80 cents how can i get viagra in ireland where to buy generic viagra in manila how to buy clomid in the uk steroids i took 300 mg of zoloft by accident brasher supalite womens reviews on cialis doxycycline in the sun ciprofloxacin al 250 mg preis purchase as needed cialis ampicillin dose for group b strep viagra in a sachet price of finasteride tablets in philippines viagra myth and reality clomid 50 mg and metformin success stories gcpharma cialis over the counter madopar 125 mg beipackzettel ciprofloxacin accutane really worth taking quick viagra delivery cost of propecia boots prednisone 20 mg indicaciones del safe prednisone intervals 4free online order viagra prix du cialis 5mg en pharmacie subscribe by email in viagra canadian viagra by mail whats walmart price viagra difference between viagra 25 mg 50 mg how to split a cialis in half prednisone 10 mg ingredients viagra pills in united states viagra lowest price generic sydney buy viagra how should 4 500 mg er metformin be taken many mg viagra can you take mockito stubbing generics for accutane doxycycline for sinus infection how many mg much does one month propecia cost can you drink on metformin can you buy cialis in amsterdam no prescription sildenafil citrate uk next day metolazone used with lasix can i buy tadalafil atboots notice prednisone mylan 20 mg tips for viagra usage cipro hc otic liquid suspension cialis once a day generic generic viagra uses cytotec dosis para 3 semanas causas y concecuencias ciprohexal 250mg google uk wellbutrin generic not as effective as metformin diflucan online canadian pharmacy diflucan jack newman how can i get viagra cheap hasta que semana puedo usar cytotec purchase and viagra soft is it dangerous to take 20 mg cialis two days in a row medicamento generico del viagra en zithromax suspension 300 mg prescription viagra costco can you buy viagra in st maarten buy generic viagra online europe viagra tablet in pakistan cialis 5 mg najtaniej assuefazione cialis 5 mg cytotec costo en farmacias del ahorro mexico how many rounds of clomid are safe throat irritation caused by doxycycline diflucan over the counter australia doxycycline for strep throat dosage generico do cialis tablets doxycycline 100mg genericode zovirax in sg generic viagra versus generic cialis pills viagra natural substitute delivery viagra cialis soft best price can you take viagra while on sotalol can viagra cause kidney damage achat viagra soft pfizer paiement paypal next best alternative to accutane is 60 mg a high dose of prednisone diflucan 50 mg dose for penile candida cetirizina mylan 10 mg comprimidos viagra price of viagrain malaysia how safe is low dose cialis doxycycline tablets to buy can buy viagra dublin donde puedo comprar cytotec caracas where to buy cialis in calgary without a prescription canine doxycycline dose tercian 25 mg of zoloft glucophage xr usage vibramycin 50 mg syrup what if i take 2 cialis pills viagra online generic from india offers cialis 5mg delivery door to door viagra and pe is oral prednisone safe during pregnancy azicin 150 mg zoloft wild viagra reviews aurogra 100 mg sildenafil how many mgs of zoloft to get high accutane cause ocd docusate sodium capsules 100mg viagra viagra uk ebay clomid sucesses in nigeria metformin hydrochloride 1000 mg weight loss prevention how much does zovirax cost in canada cefdinir vs zithromax can i buy viagra over counter in calgary viagra latest price in delhi cheap viagra next day ship lo loestrin fe generic substitute for viagra cialis uk lloyds what happens to a girl if they take viagra generic cialis canada no prescription adapalene generico do viagra cialis 2.5 mg vs 5 mg cost how to get viagra from your gp prices viagra dubai propecia for hair loss purchase buy clomid medication for fertility online viagra tramadol clomid como usarlo order cialis next day shipping best viagra nature pantoprazole nome generico de cialis doxycycline monohydrate 50 mg does viagra require a prescription in australia why isnt viagra generic yet leaguesafe alternatives to viagra can cialis cause blood in seminal fluid thai doctors discover alternative to viagra tadalafil 20 mg stada sildenafil in saudi arabia over the counter viagra in newcastle tyne sildenafil generico farmacias similares franquicias accutane sold in canada anglo nubian goat for sale in uk zithromax cialis without prescription in usa sildenafil dapoxetine uk cialis costco lasix surgey cost rexer 15 mg comprimidos viagra viagra in macular degeneration 2.5 mg of prednisone for vocal cords en farmacias similares vende tadalafil online citalopram dura 20 mg wirkung viagra queso payoyo donde comprar viagra cobra versus cialis reviews metformin mechanism of action in pcos and pregnancy doxycycline capsule in india order tadalafil bertibarots can u drink and take cialis is viagra safe for diabetes roacutan original e generico de cialis where to buy dapoxetine priligy in canada on line excelentes resultados con finasteride generic rectal use of viagra vasogenic edema corticosteroids prednisone generic cialis recommended the socialist party of america was founded in what year comprar viagra en la argentina best way to use a viagra le prix de roaccutane au maroc acheflan aerosol generico do viagra oretic generic cialis como usar cytotec chile propranolol 40 mg 3 times a day recipes propecia side effect with excessive watering in eye what the best herbal viagra can 16 year olds use viagra genericky cialis prednisolone reduction in dose inderal public speaking mg viagra canada reddit soccer best time to take daily cialis clomid dosage after testosterone why take clomid after steroids much tramadol safe take zoloft blue sky peptide tadalafil review misoprostolcytotec in south africa idarac 500 mg metformin do i need prescription for cialis in uk qualquer um pode comprar viagra portugal doxycycline hyclate pain swallowing can i get priligy on the nhs generic ciprofloxacin ear drops can i get viagra in bangalore cytotec buy now in bronx viagra from india safety standards where to buy cialis in malaysia phamarcy walmart walgreen cialis pro chem clomid 50mg tadalafil liquid injection valve comprar viagra y cialis online how to last longer in bed with ed and taking cialis precio de diflucan 100 mg sildenafil de 50 mgeyaculacion precoz when is the best time of day to take cialis daily is it safe to rake viagra with ampplodine what happens when you take half a cialis proper dose cialis sildenafil gel over the counter is viagra covered under medicare how much time tadalafil 20 effects in women body is it free to buy cialis in canada now zovirax generic cream or ointment corbatas de unquera donde comprar viagra a8674 25 mg of zoloft how many 10mg viagra come in a bottle price of sildenafil in durban ciprofloxacin ear drops usa where to buy cytotec without prescriptions glucophage 1000 mg beipackzettel tadalafil kaufen eu nouveaux usages for prednisone cialis quanto costa in italia day cycle best start clomid generic cialis and dapoxetine prednisone 10 mg 54 899 zithromax 1000 mg for less prednisone 20 mg does it has side effect of hair loss viagra natural onde comprar nolvadex for sale pct supplements zovirax 800 mg iv doxycycline hyclate 100 mg oral cap la droga del viagra generic cialis pharmacy second treatment of accutane Kiwipolitico » Blog Archive » The measure of military commitment is taken in blood.

The measure of military commitment is taken in blood.

datePosted on 19:05, August 4th, 2010 by Pablo

The death of Lt. Timothy O’Donnell in an ambush while on patrol in Bayiman province is a tragic but inevitable consequence of the NZDF participation in the ISAF mission in Afghanistan. His death, the first in ten years since the killing of Private Leonard Manning in an ambush by Indonesian militias in East Timor, is a sad reminder of the bottom line when soldiers are sent into conflict zones. But that is a cost worth paying when the soldiers are volunteers, understand their orders and the risks involved, deploy willingly and enjoy the support of politicians and public back home. The latter depends on how the public perceives the conflict in question, which usually reduces to perceptions of immediate or proximate threat weighed against the costs and benefits presumably involved.

The costs of the NZDF deployment to Afghanistan are now clear and are likely to mount in the months ahead as Taliban sharpen their attacks in the build-up to ISAF withdrawal as of July 2011. The question for NZ is now not so much military as it is diplomatic and political: will the NZ public continue to support the deployment if casualties continue to mount, and will the National government have the political will to continue in the fight in the event of growing public opposition and the intangible diplomatic benefits to be accrued from ongoing participation?

Although it is a bit dated, I have explained why I believe the mission is worth continuing here. I have also explained why I believe that the ISAF mission is bound to change once the July 2011 withdrawal commencement date begins. As a follow up, I have written a short piece that will appear in a mainstream media outlet tomorrow on Lt. O’Donnell’s death in the context of a Taliban resurgence and switch to a “balloon” guerrilla strategy in which the Taliban retreats from large kinetic confrontations in Halmand and Kandahar provinces and regroups in areas such as Bayiman where the ISAF presence on the ground is thinner (i.e. when they get squeezed they pop up elsewhere rather than fight a superior force at the point of massed contact).

All indications are that the security situation in Afghanistan will get worse rather than better, if it ever does. ISAF commander General David Petraeus and US Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Millan have said as much. John Key has committed the NZDF to the Bayiman PRT until September 2011 and is considering extending the NZSAS deployment past its schedule end date of March 2011. But now that the costs of the mission are etched in blood, does he have the nerve, resolve and most importantly public support to keep that promise should things get worse in the months to come? Given that 2011 is an election year, will polls rather than principle drive his decision? One thing I believe will be certain. More Kiwi blood will flow in that forsaken land.

12 Responses to “The measure of military commitment is taken in blood.”

  1. Pat on August 5th, 2010 at 11:44

    Pablo. Thanks for your insight into the situation, but after reading several of your pieces you offer much information, but little actual personal opinion as to what you think NZ’s ongoing involvement should be. Maybe you have professional or simply partisan political reasons not to do so, but as a leading analyst/commentator, surely it would be helpful for the NZ public to know what analysts/advisors like you think should happen. Otherwise the more sensationalist sections of our media will set the the agenda.

  2. Tom Semmens on August 5th, 2010 at 11:53

    will the NZ public continue to support the deployment

    I think you’ll find that opinion poll after opinion poll has showed a majority New Zealanders have never supported the war in Afghanistan.

    The public’s luke warm acceptance of the PRT was conditional on them never being in action with anyone and no one getting killed.

    New Zealanders have no appetite for imperial adventures in far off lands.

  3. Lew on August 5th, 2010 at 12:08

    Tom, I think the clearest conclusion you can draw is that the public is pretty evenly divided and to the extent they do hold a position, they don’t hold it very strongly. While the public clearly supported Clark’s “not without a UN mandate” position, nobody has managed to make any great ground by advocating a rapid withdrawal. Even Labour, calling for deescalation and the withdrawal of the SAS now, is doing so quietly and gently and has failed to gain any real support due to the stance. Likewise the Greens.


  4. Tom Semmens on August 5th, 2010 at 12:28

    nobody has managed to make any great ground by advocating a rapid withdrawal.

    But no one has run that line either.

    Given that New Zealanders, unlike the rest of the Anglosphere, have never brought into the whole war on terror meme and the significant anti-Americanism that is rife here I would say both our mainstream parties are yet again (surprise surprise) much more to the right than the general public on this issue, a fact tacitly recognised by the fact both Labour and National use the fig leaf of “security” to never talk about combat action by the SAS and the PRT has be sold (very effectively, if Russell Brown is any guide) to the public as a friendly Fulton-Hogan road gang who just happen to have some guns.

    John Key has made no effective case for our involvement beyond mouthing some simplistic and crude rubbish about fighting terrorism. I suspect from his lifestyle choices he is slavishly pro-American and therefore well out of kilter with the public on that score, something he manages to conceal from the voters ue to the usual sycophantic conservative media and excellent PR.

    One or two more deaths and public opinion will move quickly and overwhelmingly in favour of an immediate pull out.

  5. JD on August 5th, 2010 at 13:34

    Given that New Zealanders, unlike the rest of the Anglosphere, have never brought into the whole war on terror meme and the significant anti-Americanism that is rife here I would say both our mainstream parties are yet again (surprise surprise)

    I think you’re making this up. Maybe with the Aro Vally crowd or or at a GPJ meeting but I’ve never encountered anti-Americanism within mainstream NZ. Maybe you should get out more often.

    I think the public opinion will not be swayed by several deaths if they occur in a singular fashion but if they were to be inflicted in a single incident like what happened to French troops in August 2008 this could change.

  6. Pablo on August 5th, 2010 at 13:37


    I think that my writing on security issues reflects my background in the intelligence community. There the purpose of writing is to provide dispassionate analysis that covers all points of view so that policy-makers can inform their judgements with them. Bias and spin are not part of a good intelligence officer’s work. Thus my writing here and elsewhere on security related matters is designed to get readers to think through the subject rather than listen to my views on it.

    I tend to write more personally when it comes to social and class issues. In general I see myself as progressive on social matters and moderate conservative on security matters (owing to the nature of the latter).

  7. Tom Semmens on August 5th, 2010 at 13:43

    but I’ve never encountered anti-Americanism within mainstream NZ. Maybe you should get out more often.

    Dude, you must live under a rock, or have never travelled, or are not very widely read or possibly all three.

    The other Anglosphere countries are MUCH more conservative and right wing in foreign affairs than we are. New Zealand has a significant (I would venture to say in combination a majority) body of opinion that is relatively left wing, rather isolationist, quite anti-American and very complacent.

  8. Pat on August 5th, 2010 at 14:01

    Pablo – the downside risk to being dis-passionate is that if troop withdrawals lead to the persecution and death of the civilians left behind, you can’t very well say something like “Well, I always thought pulling out was a bad idea, but I didn’t want to say so at the time.”

    I’m not sure I would label it bias. I think informed professional analysts should not be afraid to voice an opinion. Because political protaganists with their own agendas will surely be voicing theirs loudly.

  9. JD on August 5th, 2010 at 14:07

    Dude, you must live under a rock, or have never travelled, or are not very widely read or possibly all three.

    Not at all. The Anti-Americanism you talk about was simply confined to isolated individuals whose beliefs were more pathological than anything else. I’ve never seen an US flag burned in the streets and the only protests against the US were during the anti-Israel ones up on Queen st but the participants were mostly Arabs anyway. But as i alluded to before I don’t go out of my way to hang around with groups of people whose association is based on their political beliefs.

  10. WH on August 5th, 2010 at 15:14

    I support Pablo’s dispassionate advice – it is the mark of not just a good intelligence officer, but also a good advisor (whether private or public). The role is not to be the decision maker, but to ensure that the decision maker(s) can say that they have been fully informed in making there decision. In the world of policy analysis, whilst you present a free and frank analysis, you may/should include information on options and possible an assessment of what might be preferred options, although preferred options may not work in the intelligence environment when providing strategic overview as opposed to tactical resonse. But it is important to remember that a decision maker will take on board your advice and possibly the advice of others (which may conflict with the framework you utilised) and even utilise their own intellect/opinion in making their decision.

    In the end the decision maker has to be able to justify there decision to the wider public/shareholder. Generally decision makers have quiet quick sanctions for poor decisions – elections or like the case of the late BP CE constructively moved on, or fired unceremoniously. Advisors/analysts in general continue on long after the decision makers have move on (whether promoted or demoted).

  11. Pablo on August 5th, 2010 at 18:15

    Pat: WH has summarised my position quite well. An analyst gives the decision-makers a holistic view of a given matter, offers options and if asked will give advice or recommend a course of action. But it is the boss who decides, which is exactly why W. Bush blaming the CIA for the false Iraq WMD estimates was especially despicable (he ignored what they really said, ginned up bogus evidence using Rumsfeld’s black ops unit, George Tenet’s cherry-picked info and Cheney’s machinations inside the CIA and NSC, then refused to accept responsibility when the ruse was revealed, instead blaming the analysts who gave him the real data in the first place).

    However, I should also point you back to the January Scoop article I linked to in the post, where I offer a defense of the NZDF deployment in Afghanistan. In that essay I was wearing a commentator’s hat rather than that of an analyst.

  12. Quentin on August 6th, 2010 at 06:45

    Pablo: Your writings in this blog is a good feed for me to chew on. While you say it is dispassionate and that it ought to help readers think through the issues, I for one have appreciated that candidness for what it is. I am bright enough to read between the lines and so thanks for your input into foreign policy and national security issues, from your Intelligence experience. I am really enjoying this site. It is also helping me to think about what to say in words.

Leave a Reply

Name: (required)
Email: (required) (will not be published)