Winston Peters did not fall, he wasn’t even just pushed, he was dragged down by an effective tactical campaign.Â Some political operative got everything they needed â€“ the evidence, the source, a couple of journos, a couple of commentators and a couple of politicians â€“ and they went for it, and they won.Â
It’s tempting to see it as a joint National-Act campaign with a disgruntled ex NZ First staffer feeding them information, but the idea that National and Act managed to work that closely together and completely shared everything seems really far fetched. Also the main source will have needed a single main contact.
So maybe it was a National campaign, carefully orchestrated, inviting Act in when needed. National had the biggest benefit from the end of NZF, so that counts for it. But… National ran a very low risk campaign and this was not a low risk strategy: imagine the fallout if the media had covered the strategy orchestration by the Nats, or if Peters really did have the material on the Nats he’d always claimed.
Ok, possibly an Act campaign which occasionally invited in National? Much more plausible from a risk perspective: Act could’ve withstood this going bad without any real difficulty. But… if you were a disgrunted ex-NZFer, would you go to Act? And how much did Act really get from the death of NZF? And does Act have the internal political infrastructure to pull this off?
Final option, someone on the right but outside both parties â€“ relationships and trust with both parties, but not beholden to either. So no political risk to either party, more plausible deniability for journos (it’s not coming straight from a party operative) and the ability to co-ordinate across and beyond party lines. But… there are only a few right operatives thatÂ skillful who aren’t in parties and surely someone’s checked them out.
So, who did it? Who had the skill, ability and connections to take down Winston Peters?