where to buy cytotec online is prednisone safe while breastfeeding salusan comprimidos viagra 20 mg of cialis is not making me hard enough viagra condoms purchase online doxycycline how much does it cost philippines is generic cialis fda where can i buy tadalafil generic cialis made calcichew d3 forte sitruuna 500 mg metformin is there cytotec in mercury drugs buy cialis in eureka propecia works in the frontal hairloss buy cipro india how long does cialis stay in the blood diffuse alopecia areata accutane generic where to buy viagra uk what viagra really does zoloft nursing implications 30 5mg tablets cialis price zoloft and sotalol receptfri viagra generic cialis generico in farmacia senza ricetta tadalafil cialis 100mg reviews can you take saw palmetto with propecia propecia minoxidil online comprar viagra generico chile accutane taken off of market jual viagra 100m uk spray di jakarta propranolol yan etkileri where can i get sildenafil citrate cialis price in ahmedabad diflucan 200 mg for 5 days price of cialis in mercury drug zovirax 200 mg tabletas agin where can i buy clomid online in cape town cost of propranolol without insurance cialis sol in south africa taking more than 1 mg of finasteride 2 5 mg or 5mg cialis cialis indian dealers is it safe to stop metformin when pregnant comprar viagra en similares medicinas do i take cialis with water doc121 cialis generic viagra india quora jobs malaria medicine doxycycline dosage has any body used generic cialis can you buy viagra in las vegas without prescription does viagra help with premature ejaculation uk doctor finasteride 5mg mujer does accutane cause muscle soreness ciprofloxacin 500 mg mental changes converse shoes buy online uk viagra how long to take doxycycline for periodontitis cheap viagra online without a prescription 100 mg clomid in a first cycle how to get zithromax z pak vertigo tablets over the counter uk viagra half life of doxycycline in cell culture is 20 mg cialis strong generico viagra precos ciprofloxacina de 250 mg tadalafil trade names in india wat doet viagra prices kusnetzoff viagra generic what happens if i take 2 cialis generic metformin rowcmoadreders penegra like indian viagra for women can i buy viagra over the counter in sam club bufflo american made viagra brand viagra in australia cipro generic medication silvadene over the counter alternative to viagra is cialis made in india any good medicament ciproxin 500 mg do you get viagra in india trayenta generico do viagra can you use rogaine with propecia cialis soft gel mountain hardwear kelvinator womens reviews on cialis where can i buy viagra in holland prednisone online canadian pharmacy where to buy non prescription ciprofloxacin clomid and endometrial lining veterans administration cost of viagra ciprofloxacin 500 mg for bladder infection can u take amoxil while pregnant paypal viagra no prescription canada hindgra sildenafil tablets bioniche pharma nolvadex online socialism benefits in sweden generic for viagra south africa cheapest price on clomid can you get in the sun while taking prednisone para que se usa la droga finasteride clindamicina 150 mg comprimidos viagra pilula rosa viagra feminino onde comprar forgot to take accutane for a week propecia 1mg erfahrungen has cialis went up in price generic viagra without subscription buy propecia 1mg tablets milk and zithromax ampicillin 500 mg used online pharmacy australia nolvadex vs clomid liquid tadalafil uk 50 mg of viagra vs 20 mg of cialis cialis over the counter alternatives to viagra are generic cialis from india safe viagra in vendita online buy durex viagra condom is 20 mg prednisone a low dose for osteoarthritis cialis generico en farmacias similares pediatric dose for viagra acquistare cialis generico org doxycycline toxic dose cheap finasteride pill ciprofloxacina 500 mg comprimidos metformin 850 mg tablets diabetes association viagra information cost viagra in anchorage how far in advance to take cialis sildenafil 20 mg vs 100 mg viagra buy cialis viagra pharmacy biltricide generic viagra can you take hcg with clomid 5 mg cialis from canada finasteride eciwlcodkedefe australia metformin qt interval what name is the drug cipro old under in mexico is viagra safe for pregnancy zithromax 500 mg en republica dominicana reliable source for generic viagra can i get viagra in mexico over the counter amoxil 1000 mg acquistare viagra online con contrassegno doxycycline over the counter drug buy light switch decal viagra viagra at costco price prednisone kit 10 mg dosing viagra avialable places in sri lanka is it hard to get on accutane how long does 5mg cialis last in the body medicamant ciprofloxacin 1a pharma 500 mg dapoxetine buy uk basketball usage of cialis generic cialis nyc cityscape silhouette generic viagra cytotec pfizer where can i buy in phillippines ze carlos generico do viagra lowest price propecia price of propecia in kolkata buy clomid hcg viagra online shop empfehlung englisch liquid viagra for girl suduced were can i buy womens viagra in liverpool cheap doxycycline australia allergic reactions to doxycycline hyclate 100mg cialis south africa price dapoxetine natural source ciprofloxacino nombre comercial y generico peru cialis powder online clomid 50mg post cycle ibuhexal akut 400 mg wirkung viagra nausea from diflucan is it safe to mix cialis and prednisone were to buy viagra in bali average cost of cialis in philippines zithromax mg 500 buy cheap cialis online get viagra chemist teenager use viagra priligy online doctor viagra tablets 100mg cheapest price jalra 50 mg wirkstoff sildenafil lasix pills purchase price of viagra pills in pune where do i get viagra in seattle prednisone to buy is it safe to tylenol with viagra cialis 5 mg costa rica existe viagra liquido who sells cialis 2.5 mg kisah merintis usaha dari nolvadex cialis 30 day free trial offer liquid clomid good is zenerex safe to take with viagra how long after rhinoplasty can i take accutane normal cialis dosage cialis in kl pharmacy what is the black capsule in cialis nuvaring nombre generico de amoxil como usar cytotec en el primer mes de embarazo viagra free prescription uk viagra sellers in the bradford nolvadex buy cheap costo finasteride 1mg axapharm viagra kaufen guaranteed cheapest generic viagra order generic viagra online overnight cytotec category x indian viagra illness when to best take viagra cialis cost at greens erection paypal cialis statex 25 mg zoloft prix viagra andorre 50ml viagra vs 100 ml bodybuilding best place to order clomid purchase viagra japan best foods to take with accutane prednisone dosing in ms how often can i take cialis 20 suppliers of viagra in india propecia 1mg and minoxidil 5 finasteride 1mg causa impotencia causas throat irritation caused by doxycycline viagra cost giant eagle best price viagra 90505 when does sildenafil become generic cymbalta what is tadalafil tablets for retinitis pigmentosa viagra bitter taste in mouth zoloft miss a 40 mg dose one day prednisone ciprofloxacino 500 mg tratamiento gonorrea medco prior authorization form cialis generic effekten av cialis over the counter isotretinoin is accutane buy clomid online no prescription succession story sildenafil price in pakistan lumia when is the best time to take accutane morning or night what are viagra pills for prix viagra andorre buy priligy online nz gse i see my metformin in my stool buy nolvadex and hcg viagra 100 mg indicaciones cialis at usa walmart is zoloft effective in treating anxiety alpoxen 500 mg metformin metformin in thin patients comprar viagra en managua black cialis for sale cialis cause headache normorix mite 2 5 mg bivirkninger av zoloft viagra zonder recept in belgie finasteride 1 mg mercadolibre can viagra help in premature ejaculation what is doxycycline hyclate used for in men viagra pill cake sildenafil sandoz 100 mg cenac best sunscreen to use on accutane is viagra the same cost in differant milligrams teva generic viagra difference between 20 mg cialis migraine specialists in st. louis mo every other day propecia price how 2 buy viagra zovirax srup price in how to get clomid prescribed by your doctor viagra without a doctor prescription paypal buy viagra online in new zealand viagra legal in singapore what will 75 mg of tadalafill do for erection prednisolone pfizer 5 mg biverkningar waran price viagra lloyds pharmacy canada viagra controlled substance ciprofloxacin stada 500 mg dosierung ramipril viagra beste einnahme where can i buy clomid at off shelf generic viagra cipla direct procedure to use viagra el amoxil para que sirve can you buy viagra in tenerife buy nolvadex pct uk yahoo walmart ciprofloxacin 500mg shelcal 500 mg metformin tadalafil 40 mg nebenwirkungen low dose cialis costs dapoxetine uk pharmacy requirements cialis 20 mg boite de 4 prix prednisone 20 mg indicaciones de transfusion seretide diskus generico do viagra prednisolone biochemistry how long lasting is metformin 500 mg zyd does doxycycline cause thrush cialis c20 buy canada low dose accutane and surgery viagra prix posologie can normal man take cialis cytotec compra online portugal if you have diabetes can you take viagra buy cheap cialis pay with paypal liquid viagra seller michigan where can i buy clomid tablets from in the uk cipro 500 bid costo cialis 5 mg in svizzera metformin in women with pcos sildenafil tablets 100 mg lerk jittery in the morning on zoloft prednisone 10 mg tablet wattage is viagra illegal in ireland efeito collateral finasteride generic tildiem retard 200 mg bijsluiter cialis tadalafil price in pakistan n8 when is best time to take a finasteride back pain viagra donde comprar viagra guadalajara long does accutane treatment last advice buying viagra online ampicillin resistant group b strep in pregnancy nestrolan 100 mg bijsluiter cialis order viagra online in usa sildenafil 20mg price doxycycline hyclate 100 mg cap reviews on windows metformin canadian price buying cialis in abu dhabi good viagra in india cheapest viagra gold 800mg a cheaper version of diflucan esperienze con cialis generico 100mg zoloft high dose hidroquinona generico do viagra purchase cialis south africa ciprofloxacin 500 mg orally single dose viagra in mexico rocky point clomid nolva pct buy can i use finasteride 5mg for hair loss efeito colateral viagra generico comprar viagra farmacia ahumada donde puedo comprar las pastillas cytotec bogota i want to buy viagra in mumbai can clomid be taken for more than 5 days donde puedo comprar cytotec cali cipro walmart 4 dollar list over the counter viagra bangalore viagra und cialis kaufen chemist for viagra india hersteller von viagra generika powered by smf 2.0 discount generic viagra blue pill finasteride propecia online cheapest cialis online uk paypal how safe is to take one viagra in a week over the counter viagra substitute gnc stores cheapest diflucan online guaranteed where to buy viagra in cancun pillspapa generic cialis viagra prescriptions cleveland ohio billige viagra kaufen ohne asda viagra uk next day delivery chinese viagra in malaysia lowest price rx viagra cialis prescribing information australia clomid liquid form for sale bulgaria de 24 mg prednisone can you take mucinex with doxycycline cialis supermarket sildenafil de 100mg american red gold viagra cialis 5mg daily australia tadalafil canadian patent expiration date generic viagra now legal in us cytotec peru donde comprar curcuma receita medica para comprar viagra where to buy viagra in jakarta indonesia cialis dealers in saudia is accutane safe webmd medicines cialis for daily use cost near morgantown trok n creme generico de cialis donde puedo comprar viagra rosario viagra generika 100mg rezeptfrei inderal mitis retard 80 mg cloridrato de ciprofloxacino 500 mg para que serve where is the cheapest cialis why is ampicillin used during labor missed dose doxycycline what is the best cavaject or viagra los jovenes pueden usar sildenafil viagra kaufen ohne rezept ohne kreditkarte sildenafil effects in healthy men average dosage of accutane tadalafil 20mg kaufen clomid cost south africa priligy jak dziala buy sildenafil citrate south africa viagra 25mg preis acquistare priligy in farmacia viagra and redbull medicals having propecia tablets in chennai dutasteride vs finasteride buy clomid steroids uk corticosteroid zoloft interactions claravis accutane reviews and results viagra sale point in pakistan new season viagra prices in canada take viagra and cialis buy propecia overnight viagra in s.a. 24hr delivery of viagra komatsu wa320 for sale in uk zithromax examples of democratic socialism in us venta viagra generico mexico whats comparable to clomid over the counter moisturizers to use while taking accutane in your 30s price comparison of viagra 100mg buy brand propecia online generic prednisone 10mg pack liquid tadalafil buy zoloft class action prednisone dosage 5 mg at 9 year old pain in chest after taking doxycycline viagra meaning in punjabi respect what is the average price of accutane ciprofloxacina 500 mg gastroenteritis order viagra walgreens cialis generic about viagra purchase sinapore zoloft or luvox for ocd does cialis really work for 24 hours furosemide generic manufacturers of metformin pills cialis chud eu could you put viagra in water birth control and metformin brainerd sran fastest delivery cialis sixth cycle of clomid for sale what does viagra cost canada prescription going on accutane order viagra consumer discount rx glucophage hcl 1000 mg dapoxetine tablets australia metformin hcl manufacturers india metformin without prescription canada propranolol tablets price in india cialis a prescription in bc is buying viagra from someone illeagle who is the girl in the cialis ad canada pharmacy cialis 10 mg generalised anxiety disorder zoloft prednisone chews 5 mg accutane 40 mg to 80 mg nitazoxanide generic cialis is there danger in taking two cialis at once max dose of tadalafil costo pastillas cytotec medellin average dosage of accutane viagra information australia j code for ampicillin where to buy viagra quick can you buy cialis in bahamas do i take clomid after spotting qualifica istat operaio generico do viagra como comprar cytotec misoprostol priligy brasil comprar interferon beta 1a generic viagra cialis covered by medicare bestrahlung hautkrebs nebenwirkungen viagra viagra kaufenin spanien propranolol 40 mg cena mosardal 500 mg metformin effexor xr vs generic version of zoloft onglyza tem generico do viagra tadalafil what is in it viagra online usa only casino when best take cialis cheap cialis in usa doxycycline for blepharitis treatment walmart pharmacy sildenafil price where can i get propecia online cialis 20mg preise schweiz cheap drugs net product viagra coupons accutane causes facial redness prezzo viagra generico farmacia vhdl component declaration with generic propecia buy gw viagra plans for generic viagra how to tell the difference between real viagra n fake uses for the drug doxycycline review of clomid boy forced to take viagra gta 5 online character creation guide female viagra best generic viagra online tadalafil daily dose 5 mg for sale price of pfizer viagra in us donde comprar cialis generico dfg zithromax tablets online vse pesni viagra online is there cialis 25 mg cialis rowcmoadreders online cialis online 60mg puedo comprar sildenafil en la farmacia priligy 30mg e 60 mg to g cialis generic v brand cipro intravitreal viagra bestilling xl pharmacy viagra viagra hong kong buy can you take 2 cialis in a day viagra best dosage of coq10 enlarged prostate treatment cialis Kiwipolitico » Iran
Posts Tagged ‘Iran’

Trading with the Mullahs

datePosted on 18:45, September 17th, 2015 by Pablo

I was a replacement panelist invited by the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs to join a discussion in Wellington on the Iranian nuclear agreement. It was a a pleasant event that addressed the pros and cons of the deal. I was impressed with some of the speakers, particularly Dr. Parsi from Lund University (speaking via Skype). I was less impressed with the Israeli discussant and the statements (not question) by an official from the Iranian embassy who was in the audience.  All in all, it was an engaging affair and I encourage the Institute to continue with such public outreach efforts.

I spoke a bit about how the deal can be viewed on two analytic levels: as a First Image (interstate) issue and as a Second Image (domestic sources of foreign policy) matter. I mentioned that a way to conceptualise the agreement is as part of a “nested game” (to use a game theoretic term): the deal is part of a series of interlocked interactions (or “games’) that can be seen much as those iconic Russian dolls are (one inside the other) or as building blocks towards a larger whole. I noted that the core of the agreement was to exchange trade for recognition and security–in other words, Iran gets more trade and recognition of its legitimate interests and stature as a regional power by putting the brakes on its nuclear weapons development program with an eye to cancelling the weapons program altogether should the agreement prove beneficial for all sides. They main lever is another trade-off: dropping of international sanctions against Iran in exchange for a rigorous international (IAEA-managed) inspections regime.

For those who are not familiar with the agreement, it is not a bilateral US-Iran affair although they are the major players in it. Instead, the treaty was negotiated by the P5+ 1 parties and Iran, the P5+1 being the permanent UN Security Council members (the US, UK, France, China and Russia) plus Germany. For those interested in the details of the deal, the official US government position is outlined here (which includes the text of the full Agreement itself). A US translation of the Iranian interpretation can be found here. The fact that the P5 agreed to the deal is remarkable given their history of disagreement and subterfuge on matters of international security.

There was an interesting sidebar about “breakout time” introduced by the Israeli, who waxed hysterical about the apocalyptic implications of the deal. Dr Parsi noted that “breakout” refers to the time needed to enrich uranium to weapons grade, in response to the Israeli claim that the deal gave the Iranians a breakout potential of one year. Prior to the deal, that enrichment breakout threshold was two weeks. The point is that “breakout” time refers to the time needed to begin enriching uranium to weapons grade rather than the time needed to build a bomb.

Dr. Parsi noted that “breaking out” on enrichment is not the same as putting nukes on missiles. I said nothing at the time but here I actually know a bit without being a nuclear scientist ( I studied nuclear strategy under one of the original strategists behind the nuclear bombing of Japan and so-called MAD theory. He grappled with the moral dilemmas involved in front of me and my student cohort at the University of Chicago (home of the Manhattan Project) and later changed his mind with regard to MAD). The notion that Iran can start enriching uranium or reprocessing plutonium to weapons grade in a short period of time and then quickly build a missile launched nuclear warhead is simply mistaken.

From a technical viewpoint beyond the specifics of Iran’s enrichment and reprocessing programs, the problem of weaponising nuclear material is simple. Unlike the multi-ton “dumb” bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima or Nagasaki using concentrated high explosives as triggers focused on the nuclear material, the bulk of testing then and now consists of reducing the nuclear payload to a size that can be carried in the nose cone of an (increasingly small and light) intermediate range or intercontinental missile (IRBM or ICBM). The smaller the size of the delivery vehicle, the better its chances of avoiding surface to air or air to air interception. Given that requirement and the need for accuracy, nuclear payloads share very tight space with guidance systems. All of which is to say that given the weight constraints on a high velocity long range projectile, the “bomb” has to be miniaturised for maximum bang for the buck. Doing so requires downsizing the trigger mechanism from focused high explosives to something else. Laser triggers are one option. There are others.  All of them are off limits to the Iranians irrespective of the deal. So not only is the fear of “breakthrough” unfounded and exaggerated for political purposes, but the real concern regarding mounting nukes on missiles is subject to  both contractual and non-contractual enforcement.

My general view is that the agreement is worth doing. Other speakers and I commented on the downside, which mostly involves the reaction of Israel and the Sunni Arab oligarchies as well as domestic opponents in Iran and the US. I noted that there are disloyal hardliners in both the US and Iran that have potential veto power over the deal in the future should governments change, and that it was imperative for the soft liners or pragmatists to accrue tangible benefits from the deal in order to resist the sabotage efforts of hardliners who have vested interests in keeping tensions alive between the two countries. I made the point that Iran is more akin to Cuba than North Korea, and can be brought into the community of nations so long as it was recognised as a regional power with legitimate interests.

Speaker’s times were very limited (7 minutes each), so I was unable to fully address what I had intended to say. So let me do so here.

The lifting of sanctions on Iran as part of the quid pro quo at the heart of the deal opens a window of trade opportunity for New Zealand exporters and importers (more so the former than the latter). Coincidentally,  Foreign Minster Murray McCully has announced that in a few weeks he will be leading a trade mission over to Iran to discuss those opportunities. This is in advance of the implementation of the accord (which goes into effect at the start of next year) and is, as far as I can tell, the first official Western government led trade mission to Iran in the wake of the signing of the agreement.

But let us be clear on what that mission needs to entail. Although Iran’s human rights record needs to be mentioned, however pro forma by McCully, to his Iranian counterparts, the point that must be emphasised is that New Zealand’s opening of trade relations with Iran is absolutely, explicitly contingent upon Iran adhering to its part of the bargain. Should Iran in any way shape or form renege on the letter or the spirit of the agreement and the inspections regime that it authorises, then McCully needs to make clear that New Zealand will terminate or at least suspend until Iran complies all imports and exports to the Persian giant.

I say this because under McCully and Tim Groser MFAT has turned into the Ministry for Trade with Anyone for Trade’s sake. Human rights and non-proliferation are not part of the Groser/McCully negotiating agenda. But in this instance both need to be and the latter has to be. The profit margins of New Zealand exporters and importers and the tax revenues derived thereof must not and cannot supersede New Zealand’s commitment to upholding the terms of this non-proliferation agreement in the event of violations. Those involve re-imposing sanctions, and the bottom line of private interests must not come before the commitment to non-proliferation, especially given New Zealand’s long held diplomatic stance on the matter.

McCully also needs to explain to New Zealand importers and exporters that any contracts they let in Iran are contingent and externally enforceable. That is, they are contingent on Iranian compliance with the inspections regime and the overall thrust of the Agreement (which is to reduce the prospect of weaponising its nuclear program); and they are subject to outright cancellation or suspension by the New Zealand government under penalty of law in the event Iran reneges or violates its side of the bargain. There are opportunity costs and risks involved, and these need to be outlined to interested parties in advance of the mission.

From announcements so far, it does not appear that the National government is interested in making such demands of the Iranians or its market partners. Instead, it appears that it is opportunistically jumping to the head of the cue of potential trade partners and will let the private sector lead the charge into trading with Iran. That is curious because McCully speaks of “not getting offside” with the P5+1, but the very fact that he mentions the possibility of “getting offside” indicates that he and his MFAT minions are considering the costs and benefits of doing so.

The Iran deal hinges on two things: verification and enforcement. There are instruments in place to verify that Iran is upholding its part of the deal. The sanctions will begin to be lifted on January 1, 2016. But it is enforcement of the terms that is the most uncertain aspect of the Agreement. If New Zealand does not explicitly tie its renewed trade with Iran to the latter’s compliance with the terms and be prepared to halt trade with Iran in the event that it does not comply, then it will begin the slippery slope of undermining the deal. For a Security Council member that depends more on reputation than power for its influence, and which has a past record of leadership on non-proliferation, that is a hypocritical and ultimately vulnerable position to be in.

The deal within the deal.

datePosted on 15:18, November 26th, 2013 by Pablo

There are several things to consider when digesting news about the recently signed nuclear limitation agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the UNSC permanent members US, UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany, with the EU as a mediator/facilitator). First, what is publicly announced about international agreements is not always all that is agreed upon. Often times what is not publicly disclosed is as or more important than the announced terms.

Second, actors given majority credit for an international agreement may not have been as decisive as they and their home media would like the public to believe.

Third, no agreement stands alone or occurs in a vacuum: other geopolitical and strategic considerations are bound to frame and influence the terms of the finalized compact.

The agreement between Iran, EU and six world powers on the conditions by which Iran would de-weaponize its nuclear research program in exchange for a temporary relief from international sanctions is a case in point. The agreement is for six months, with an eye to negotiating a more permanent contract at the end of that period. The 7 billion dollars in sanctions relief is not a huge amount by global standards, but significant in that it demonstrates the effectiveness of the sanctions regime imposed on Iran as well as its the flexibility of it (since it can be reimposed in the event Iran reneges on its promises).

The technical details are pretty straight forward: Iran agrees to suspend the enrichment of natural uranium (U238) beyond five percent and to neutralize its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium (U235). This is a step away from weaponization because most weapons grade U235 is enriched above 80 percent, which is relatively easy to produce if 20 percent enriched U235 is on hand. Most civilian nuclear energy programs use 3 to 5 percent enriched U235 fuel, thereby making weaponization more time consuming and costly. The agreement therefore does not interfere with Iran’s ability to enrich uranium for civilian power production.

Iran will also curb its use and purchase of centrifuges employed for said enrichment as well as suspend the heavy water reactor extraction methods used to produce plutonium. The entire Iranian nuclear complex will be placed under tighter international inspection controls.

The Western media has variously described the deal as a “US-Iran” or “Iran-Western” accord, but the importance of China and Russia should not be ignored. Both of these powers have friendly relations with Teheran and have supplied it with weapons and diplomatic support. They were not at the meetings in Geneva to serve as props for the US and UK. In fact, their presence in the negotiations should be considered to be decisive rather than incidental, to the point that they may have had a large say in the broader issues being bargained over that eventually sealed the deal.

What might those issues be? That brings up the larger geopolitical and strategic context.

Iran, as is well known, is a major patron of the Assad regime in Syria, currently engaged in a civil war against a Sunni opposition backed by the West and Sunni Arab states. The Assad regime receives funding, weapons and direct combat support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shiia militia that serves as an Iranian proxy and power multiplier in the Levant. Assad also receives weapons from Russia, which has a naval base at the port of Tartus and which considers the Assad regime as its closest Arab ally.

Should Assad fall, not only Russia but more importantly Iran will lose a major source of power projection in the region. This would suit Israel and the Sunni Arab world, as Iran is seen as an existential threat by Israeli and Arab Sunni elites alike. Defeating Assad will pave the way for Israel to turn its military gaze more directly on Hizbollah, something that will not meet with much opposition from the West or the Sunni Arab elites. Israel is less concerned about the radical nature of a future Sunni government in Syria or the fragmentation of that country into sectarian enclaves, as the heterogenous rebel coalition now fighting Assad will be consumed by factional in-fighting that will limit its ability to project meaningful military force across its borders whether Syria as presently constituted remains intact or not. Sunni Arab elites will welcome a Sunni dominance in Syria as another bulwark against Shiia influence in the eastern Mediterranean, again, whether Syria retains its present boundaries or divides into smaller Sunni states.

However, it has become increasingly clear that the leading rebel groups in Syria are led by al-Qaeda inspired jihadis who are as bad if not worse than the Assad regime when it comes to committing callous atrocities against civilians as well as armed opponents. They are people who do not have much regard for the laws of war and who have published videos of themselves gassing dogs using crude chemical weapons (which may have had something to do with the rush to reach agreement on removing Assad’s CW stockpiles in the midst of the civil war), and who have had to apologize for “accidentally” beheading a fellow Sunni rebel leader under the mistaken assumption that he was an Alawite or Shiia Assad supporter (all videotaped, of course). Their atrocities (as well as those of the Assad regime) are well documented in the propaganda war now raging on social media.

Jihadist government in Syria may not be an existential threat to Western, much less global interests, but it is the most visible. It would be the first and most important place outside of Afghanistan where Islamicists fought their way into power (Somalia does not count). That is a significant issue regardless of their actual military power because symbolism matters and diplomacy is as much about symbology as it is about substance.

Following Russia’s lead and over Israeli and Saudi protestations, Western powers have become very alarmed about a possible jihadi victory in Syria, and now see a weakened Assad remaining in power or as part of a brokered coalition as the lesser evil. Hence the previous Western moves to give material and technical assistance to the rebels have slowed considerably while calls for a negotiated solution grow louder. Not surprisingly and following on the success of the Iran nuclear accord, negotiations on the Syrian crisis are now scheduled for January in Geneva, and include the Iranians as interested parties along with those supporting the anti-Assad forces grouped in and around the non-jihadist Syrian National Coalition and Free Syrian Army.

For Iran, this was the bargaining chip. It can agree to temporarily halt its nuclear enrichment efforts in exchange not just for sanctions relief but also in exchange for a reprieve for Assad. As things stood, its nuclear program invited massive preemptive attack and Assad’s fall spelled the end of its geopolitical influence. By agreeing to curtail its nuclear program to verifiable peaceful uses in exchange for a withdrawal of Western aid to the Syrian rebels and sanctions relief, Iran is able to buy Assad enough time to defeat the rebels, thereby maintaining Iran’s influence as a regional power while it re-builds its domestic economy unfettered by sanctions. Israel and the Saudis may not be happy about this, but their narrow interests have been shown to not be coincident with those of their Western allies on a number of strategic issues, Iran being just one of them.

Political scientists would call this the nested game scenario: within the public “game” involving negotiations between Iran and its foreign interlocutors lie other confidential or private “games” that are key to resolving the larger impasse over its nuclear program (Iranian involvement in Iraqi domestic politics might be another). These games are defined as much by those who are excluded as those who are involved in them.

All of this is speculation, and any “nested game” deal on Syria would be part of the non-public aspects of the agreement  and therefore deliberately non-verifiable over the near term absent a leak. But there is enough written between the lines of the public rhetoric to suggest that this may be what is at play rather than a simple compromise on the limits of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

 

Bibi does show and tell.

datePosted on 10:07, September 28th, 2012 by Pablo

Benjamin Netenyahu gets up in front of the UN General Assembly with a poster board showing a caricature of a bomb (surprisingly similar to the Mohammed Turban bomb cartoon motif) that supposedly shows how close Iran is to acquiring a nuclear weapon. The bomb is bisected by horizontal lines at the “70%” and “90%” uranium enrichment marks, the latter at the neck of the 19th century cannonball drawn on the board. Bibi draws a red line at the “90%” mark, declaring that it was time to draw a red line on the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Pardon me if I cough. Forget the fact that Israel has at least a dozen nuclear warheads, some of them submarine launched. Forget that even if Iran was to develop a trigger for its fissile material, it still would have to place it in a warhead that in turn must be installed in an artillery shell, airborne deployed bomb, or on a missile, all of which are exposed to attack at the point of loading. Forget the Iranian nuclear physicists have one of the highest occupational morality rates in the world, dying in a myriad of unfortunate and unexpected ways. Forget that the computers governing the Iranian nuclear enrichment process are unusually susceptible to catastrophic failures caused by worms and viruses. Forget the fact that Iran is merely seeking what could be called deterrent parity: no one seriously messes with a nuclear armed country, as North Korea, India, Pakistan and yes, Israel, have demonstrated.

Forget all of that. Why should Iran not seek deterrence parity given what happened to Iraq and Afghanistan in light of the US attacks on them even though they threatened no vital US national interest (let’s be clear: terrorist attacks, no matter how atrocious, are not existential threats to any well-established state). Given the attitude towards it on the part of the US and other Western countries, to say nothing of Israel, Iran has every reason to seek the ultimate deterrent.

In fact, Iran is on the horns of a classic security dilemma: the more it feels threatened by the actions of hostile states, the more it is determined to protect itself by seeking the nuclear trump card. The more that it does so, the more the US and Israel will feel compelled to move against it.

One might say that it is the Iranian regime’s rhetoric and support for terrorism that warrants grave concern. I say give us a break. Ahmadinejad talks to his domestic audience the way Netenyahu and Romney talk to theirs, especially during electoral season or times of internal crisis. However Westerners may wish to misinterpret and mistranslate what he says (which, admittedly is offensive and often bizarre, as his latest “homosexuality is a product of capitalism” remarks demonstrate), and no matter what an unpleasant fellow he may be, Ahmadinejad is no more of a threat to international security than any of the dozen or more Central Asian despots that the West supports, and who do not even try to hold contestable elections. They may not have nukes, but that does not mean that they are any more peace-minded than the mullahs in Teheran. As far as the use of armed proxies are concerned, does anyone remember the Contras?

And even where nuclear states have elected leaders, they are not often the most stable or impeachable. I mean, does anyone seriously think that Iran is a worse threat of starting the nuclear apocalypse than Pakistan? And yet billions of dollars in foreign aid flow to the Pakistani government, whose corruption is matched only by the rapidity with which they take offense at perceived slights.

No, the real problem is that the Persian Shiia did a bad thing to the US three decades ago by throwing out the US-supported Shah and holding US embassy hostages for more than a year (the latter a definite inter-state transgression and diplomatic no-no, to be sure). They also pose a grave threat to the US-backed Sunni Arab autocracies because of their evangelical and proselytizing Shiaa fanaticism. Yet Iran has attacked no other state directly (Iraq attacked Iran to start the 1980s war between the two), even if it uses proxies like Hezbollah to pursue military diplomacy and exact revenge on its enemies. After all, plausible deniability can work many ways.

In any event, Bibi’s show and tell show at the UN demonstrates the hypocrisy and disdain he and his supporters hold for that international organization and the intelligence of the interested public. Trying to reduce and simplify into a cartoon a complex diplomatic and military subject that is layered upon centuries of cultural, religious and ethnic enmity is not a useful teaching aid: it is an insult to the audience.

If anything, with a different presenter that ticking/fizzing poster bomb could be well be read as an indication of the state of Palestinian frustration with a territorial occupation and ethnic subjugation that has been decades in the making.  As the leader of a state that yields nothing to the self-determination aspirations of the Palestinian people, aspirations that have exacted a terrible toll on both sides of the conflict, Bibi’s bomb poster is an incitement, not an explanation.

What is galling about Bibi’s demonstration is a) his denial of Iran’s right to pursue a course of action that has proven to be an effective deterrent against aggression by larger powers and which Israel itself has availed itself of; and b) his disrespect for the UN in trotting out a kindergarten poster as an illustration of the threat he claims that Iran poses.

I am no fan of the Mullahs regime and Ahmadinejad. I believe that the Iranians are lying when they say that there nuclear program is entirely peaceful. But I understand their reasons for doing so, especially since the Israelis have lied all along about their nuclear program.

The real issue here is that Netenyahu is trying to provoke the US during an electoral campaign into supporting a pre-emptive strike on Iran. He is doing so more for his own domestic political reasons than out of concern about any imminent Iranian nuclear threat. He is a scoundrel, and he is mistaken. The US, quite frankly, is in no position to do support his preferred move, which Israel cannot do on its own. The US needs a break from more than a decade of constant war and Iran is a far more formidable adversary than Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria. Thus the timing of the cartoon presentation is ill-advised as much as its substance is childish.

The bottom line is that only a clown would find explanation and justification in Bibi’s poster bomb. That clown is Bibi himself.

The latest Word from Afar column over at Scoop speculates on New Zealand’s seemingly odd silence on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program.

One man’s terrorist…

datePosted on 08:54, March 2nd, 2011 by Lew

Via Thomas Beagle, the following astonishing story:

In Libya, an unlikely hero of a youth-led revolution
BENGHAZI, LIBYA – Mehdi Mohammed Zeyo was the most unlikely of revolutionary heroes. The bespectacled 49-year-old worked in the supplies department of the state-owned oil company. He was a diabetic with two teenage daughters.
But something snapped inside him as a youth-led uprising in Libya against the government of Moammar Gaddafi quickly turned bloody.
[…]
On the morning of Feb. 20, he walked down the stairs of his apartment building with a gas canister hoisted on his shoulder, witnesses said. He put two canisters inside his trunk of his car, along with a tin can full of gunpowder. Driving toward the base, he flashed the victory sign to the young men protesting outside and hit the gas pedal.
Gaddafi’s security forces sprayed his black car with bullets, setting off a powerful explosion, witnesses said. The blast tore a hole in the base’s front gate, allowing scores of young protesters and soldiers who had defected to stream inside. That night, the opposition won the battle for the base, and for Benghazi, as Gaddafi’s forces retreated.
[…]
Zeyo had left a will listing the debts he owed so that they could be paid, but Hafidh said the community and the company where Zeyo worked would take care of his family. On Zeyo’s desk Monday was a printed piece of paper pasted to the computer screen.
“We are from God and we return to God,” it said.
At home, his wife put her head down.
“We had no sons to carry on his name. But this is how God works, and now his name is written in history,” she said.

That was published in the Washington Post, and syndicated to the front page of the international news section of today’s Dominion Post. Read the whole thing, it’s worth your time.

Then try to re-imagine this story if the protagonist was an uneducated working-class youth from the Palestinian Occupied Territories, rural Afghanistan or the Iran-Iraq borderlands.

L

Ahmadinejad Amps Up.

datePosted on 13:11, September 27th, 2010 by Pablo

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s airing of a 9-11 conspiracy theory during his speech to the UN General Assembly last week produced a walk out by several delegations (including New Zealand’s) and a predictable chorus of outrage by conservative Western media. Not being a fan of 9-11 conspiracy theories myself, I simply note that this is is just the latest in a series of provocative UN speeches by Ahmadinejad, including his contention three years ago that there are no gays in Iran (insert Tui ad here).

What may not be apparent to the peanut gallery is the real reasons for the crazy talk. Let me therefore explain them.

As I have written before here and elsewhere, authoritarian regimes are seldom monolithic but instead are usually divided into factions of one kind or another depending on the specifics of the regime. There are hard-liners and soft-liners, idealists versus pragmatists, old guard versus new guard, religious versus secularist, military versus civilian, rural versus urban–these and other cleavages may overlap in any variety of ways (and can include inter-service divisions in military-dominated regimes). Ahmadinejad is associated with one hard line faction within the electoral authoritarian theocratic regime in Iran. This faction has been seriously undermined by the disputed December 2009 election results and subsequent unrest, something that comes at a time when Tehran is trying to impose its stamp as a major regional power by, among other things, pursuing an independent nuclear capability that has the potential if not intent of achieving nuclear deterrent status. That is the domestic context in which the UN speech was given.

The speech was televised live in Iran. It was designed to bolster Ahmadinejad’s hard-line credentials and image as a strong leader at home, thereby shoring up his support within the Revolutionary Guard affiliated hard-line elements that are vying for regime control with more moderate, secularist factions. The speech was, in other words, more for domestic consumption than international indigestion.

But it was also designed to raise Ahmadinejad’s stature within the Muslim world, and by extension that of Iran in its battle with pro-Western Sunni regimes such as those in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. The theory that 9-11 was an inside job perpetrated by the US so that it could then embark on a military project of world domination and defense of the”Zionist entity” has a fair bit of credence amongst (mostly uneducated) Muslims. Although crazy on the face of it, supposedly unexplained questions about the attacks themselves, the possibility of an ex post facto US whitewash or cover-up of the events leading up to and immediately following the attacks, and the subsequent US declaration of a “war on terror” leading to the invasion and occupation of two Muslim-dominant states (as well as the deployment of US military forces to dozens of others), lends itself easily to conspiracy theorisation, if not out of genuine skepticism than as a tool by which to manipulate subject populations already hostile to the US and Israel. By voicing one version of the “9-11 was an inside job” theory (as one of three possible explanations for the attacks mentioned by Ahmadinejad in his speech), the Iranian president dared to go where other Muslim leaders fail to tread. That raises his profile, and that of Iran, as the champion of Islamic interests at a time when other Muslim states are seen as complicit with or subjugated to US-led Western interests.

There is an irony in all of this. In a very real sense, Ahmadinejad’s speech and the reaffirmation of his position within the Iranian regime can be seen as a good thing when it comes to negotiations about its nuclear ambitions. It is axiomatic in diplomatic negotiations that agents have a strong mandate from their constituents. If the agents do not then their bargaining position can be undermined during or after the negotiations, making the entire process futile. By making his speech Ahmadinejad bolsters his position as a negotiating agent in the measure that support for him unifies and consolidates into diplomatic talking points. Put another way, were his position within the regime to remain weak or under challenge, his position as a negotiator would be undermined as well and anything that he agreed to could be undone by rivals seeking to strengthen their own internal hand. In other words, his word would mean nothing at the negotiating table.

But if his speech serves to unify support for him, then his ability to negotiate an agreement on the nuclear programme in which trade-offs between renunciation of weapons ambitions are exchanged for removal of sanctions and provision of aid, etc. will be enhanced. This is especially so because he is a hardliner with a reputation, reaffirmed by the speech, of defying the Great Satan, the UK and other Western powers while denouncing the Zionists and courting Chinese, Pakistani, North Korean and Venezuelan ties. Just like US Republican administrations (Nixon and Reagan, respectively) could lead the opening to China and the thawing of relations (glasnost) with the Soviet Union because of their hard-line credentials and domestic positions of political strength, so too it is that Ahmadinejad’s faction, not the soft-line or moderates in the Iranian regime, has the best credentials for negotiating the terms of any durable agreement on its nuclear programme. In the measure that his speech reaffirms his hard-line credentials and strengthens his position within the regime, the more possible it is for him to be a reliable negotiating agent vis a vis the West, which means that the prospects of a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear impasse are actually improved if his speech has the desired effect on his intended main audience.

Which is to say, Ahmadinejad may seem crazy, but he is crazy like a fox.