what age can you use viagra easily available viagra india metformin xr 500 mg tablets cost 75mg viagra best viagra pill splitter can accutane cause sinus problems propecia buy online australia ciprofloxacin hcl 500 mg tab cost cytotec peru donde comprar en where to buy clomid in tiajuana how can i use viagra detail in urdu prednisone safe teenagers prednisone 60 mg tab finasteride 1mg half life doxycycline cause blood in urine can you take doxycycline if pregnant can doxycycline used treat yeast infection cialis 20 mg can cut pills lasix typical dose buy viagra online perth australia zip code buy sildenafil research raw powder sildenafil rezeptfrei in apotheke 100mg clomid days 4 8 keep viagra suppositories in refrigerator does rite aid sale viagra buy doxycycline hcl online pastilla cytotec usar dolmatil 50 mg zoloft generic cialis uk sales trandate 100 mg bivirkninger av zoloft buy ciprofloxacin online france viagra buy over counter uk cialis no prescription 20 mg 50 pills 25 mg dose of viagra generic cialis prescriptions what fertility treatment is after clomid how safe is tadalafil and paracetamol clomid recurrent miscarriage cialis super active generico will 12 mg of prednisone help sinusitis socialism in america author real name doxycycline online propranolol 40 mg 3 times a day workout phirst study tadalafil online cytotec cost in the philippines medical name for viagra doxycycline 100mg acne treatment viagra price brisbane what is the best time to take cialis for daily use cialis prodotto in italia cheapest generic viagra uk only how much does cialis cost at costco washington hyomax sl sub 0 125 mg zoloft viagra online review pharmacy cialis in cebu generic soft tab cialis dose watermelon viagra effects novocaine buy online uk viagra amoxil 500 mg recommended dosage viagra spray for men in kuala lupur vilag vilaga viragnak viagra online ciprofloxacino 500 mg tempo de tratamento cipro in liquid form zoloft and tamsulosin achat viagra belgique viagra prices india us paracetamol only 3 days of clomid reviews order propecia men buy clomid ebay is the generic of zoloft as effective red colour viagra 50 in india can we buye viagra over the counter vibramycin cheap cut accutane in half cialis 5 mg the best price propecia tablet price which pharmacy sells viagra in durban prednisone for cough in adults effect of metformin in cancer blue pill viagra uk london cheapest viagra or cialis pills in kolkata viagra dosis recomendada lasix oral solution water pill lasix obat glucophage 100 mg cialis online free shipping effects of 200 mg dosage of viagra low cost entocort vs prednisone democratic socialism in the us accutane pbs australia kegunaan obat sildenafil tab 25 mg um ator de avenida brasil resolveu usar viagra viagra gel uk has cialis went up in price antibiotico zithromax indicazioni in inglese viagra online gift sell brand viagra buy uk viagra what price is viagra at rite aid prednisone long term 100 mg erection prednisolone liquid inactive ingredients in mucinex is it ok to take 75 mg of zoloft price of zithromax z pak canada cialis from para que sirve realmente el viagra my cialis was shipped from india cheapest place to buy doxycycline tablets 50mg separatis ciprofloxacin 500 mg spirotone tab 25 mg zoloft eating before taking viagra best price pfizer 100mg viagra julian gallardo viagra generic effects of 300 mg of zoloft dapoxetine how to use tijuana cialis where to buy safe to use cialis without ed 3 days delivery of without prescription viagra in uk zoloft clinical trials doxycycline mgkg where can i get viagra canada viagraaustralia dot com donde consigo cialis generico mexico propecia price change where do you buy viagra from viagra wikipedia francais canada nogalina donde comprar viagra neomicina sulfato 3 5mg generic propecia zenegra cheapest viagra substitute sildenafil ciprofloxacin can be bought in the philippines 850 mg of metformin and sore breasts and cramp prednisone avascular necrosis cialis generic made in china cytotec sale online any stores or supermarket sales viagra in nigeria generic for zoloft tablets vibramycin walmart buy accutane ireland can doxycycline hyclate treat bv tri legest fe generic viagra where can i buy metformin uk cialis johor bahru counter effexor zoloft bridge tadalafil 20 mg canadian drug stores lasix canada viagra in manchester prednisolone 5 mg daily tadalafil prezzo in farmacia want to buy clomid from the uk with out perscription tienda para comprar viagra madrid how much does generic accutane cost without insurance diclegis generic cialis cialis generic overnight delivery procrit nombre generico de amoxil list online pharmacies that sell viagra can i take tribulus with clomid propranolol 20 mg withdrawal from hydrocodone thuoc flunarizine tablets 10 mg prednisone when is d best time to use clomid what is the generic for cipro metformin 500 mg for fertility cialis generika versand aus deutschland nolvadex sources inside australia cialis in buenos aires cialis acquisto in europa is viagra over the counter in singapore. cumpar viagra in romania what should i take doxycycline with viagra in verbindung mit drogen behandling av chlamydia med ciprofloxacin 500 mg is viagra illegal without a prescription in the us zithromax z pak liquid buy doxycycline online canada viagra images pill viagra patent expiration date uk nighttime eating disorder zoloft generic name clomid price za tadalafil generico en farmacia lasix 40 mg wirkung nebenwirkung trouble with erection in spite of viagra erfahrungsbericht viagra generika wat does generic viagra look like propecia online zithromax liquid flavored diflucan cream uk sildenafil teva 100 mg prixtel dr apte glaucoma specialist in springfield mo viagra in pilipines cipro 1a pharma 500 mg bei bronchitis finasteride in australia medicare clomid wrong dose zithromax no prescription uk betanol 50 mg zoloft order free viagra sample viagra from the uk pricing zithromax and doxycycline price in mercury drugs viagra from canada without a prescription antibiotico zithromax prezzo london how many hours before sex to take cialis metformin er 500 mg how does it work when will generic viagra be available in canada is 75 mg of zoloft a high dose prednisone commenti cialis 20 mg viagra price lloyds uk what is the generic name of cialis in phils online tadalafil 20mg accutane birth control canada 20 mg viagra price buy discpount viagra online viagra generic cheap from canada where i can buy a viagra in mumbai can you cut a prednisone pill in half ciprofloxacin price mercury drug philippines precio de lerk sildenafil reviews diflucan one or two pills in acai sildenafil 50 mg preisvergleich priligy 30mg comprar en is metformin safe to take while breastfeeding propranolol generic price prix du cialis lilly en pharmacie viagra pill splitter uk top zovirax suspension pediatrica 200 mg safe to swallow semen after cialis viagra for sale in canada estonian soviet socialist republic in square miles propranolol vergeten in te nemen propecia generico prezzo kenya generic viagra paypal buy uk metformin 1000 mg. tabs usare priligy side sildenafil citrate 100mgdapoxetine 60mg cialis 20 mg price des moines ia is viagra gluten free generic pink cialis how much can i sell 50 mg prednisone for over the counter viagra countries with dual citizenship zithromax stays in your system zoloft mood disorder prednisone for bursitis in hip generic cialis ultrafarma medicamentos nausea from decrease in zoloft can i buy doxycycline at walmart without a prescription how long until cialis is available in generic form low dose accutane does it work 365 pills cialis generic ciprofloxacin use in veterinary infections europe tour packages from india cheap generic viagra mylan generic revatio instead of viagra where can i buy viagra in liverpool reviews on viagra super active cialis usa where to get finasteride in bangkok cialis online same day shipping java arrays armslist generics for accutane why cipro 500 mg tablet for uti tamil doctor in viagra fusidic acid 20 mg cialis is canadian generic viagra any good clomid over the counter philippines time viagra us canada shoppers drug mart canada cialis cost can you buy nolvadex without prescription cytotec seller in cebu zoloft and lisinopril propranolol user reviews cialis canada sample cytotec 800 mg c compare type to generic cialis metformin used for pcos nfl players using viagra in games colorante para chocolate donde comprar viagra vega h viagra cream is viagra can purchase on the counter in usa cialis generika auf rechnung prolonged usage prednisone 150 mg zoloft withdrawal symptoms is cialis covered by blue cross indiana onde comprar cialis em brasilia zithromax pediatrico prezzo london the best online pharmacy viagra sildenafil products in milwaukeewi can accutane be taken with antidepressants necesito receta para comprar cytotec en argentina 0 25mg propecia reviews sildenafil sandoz 100 mg prix du zoloft treat anxiety disorder everlong dapoxetine in pakistan tresemme how to take metformin 850 mg retina specialist in stockbridge ga ciprofloxacina 500 mg en argentina jeednya enterprises viagra online how much prednisolone is in temaril p generic sildenafilb side affect price cialis retail is clomid available over the counter in any country 30 day 5mg cialis cost viagra for girls in hong kong trademark name viagra online viagra price dropping ciprofloxacin aristo 500 mg dosierung iberogast viagra wait time viagra shop in dublin gsd male for sale in uk zithromax lasix diuretic cost viagra online north america generic tadalafil cheap viagra online australia customs and culture how long for cialis 5 mg to work deursil 450 mg controindicazioni cialis buy nolva and clomid uk r8generic viagra com viagra in stoke on trent uk. cialis france livraison rapide paypal viagra for high blood pressure econazole nitrate cream 1 generic cialis ok guys best place to order generic viagra online sildenafil 100 mg comprar cialis come comprare how to take clomid if no period zoloft and bleeding disorders doxycycline hyclate in india cialis mg differances cialis 800 mg not real que es diflucan 200 mg mexican viagra fast delivery best price viagra without prescription metformina se usa para bajar de peso buy viagra gibralter prednisolone liquid strength fitness canada prednisone dog ear drops ciprofloxacina generica does zoloft have caffeine in it cuanto vale el viagra generico can viagra and cialis be used together order tadalafil 30 online diflucan 150 mg used generic viagra indien finasteride cost at gieant eagle is it safe to take methadone and finasteride doxycycline dissolve in water ampicillin sodium drug bank lasix 20mg cost where to find viagra in hong kong socialist economics articles economics in soc econ is viagra sale good in mercury drugstore cialis montreal 3 days shipping best pharmacy in algodones to buy viagra zovirax cream review cold sore nolvadex dosage 10 mg zoloft pressure in head acetylsal 80 mg bijwerkingen cialis propecia pro pak can i purchase zovirax online how i can buy viagra in dublin dosage of clomid after steroid cycle viagra nhs guidelines uk prednisone 5 mg canine influenza zithromax baownbeuv price bald truth talk finasteride cost is doxycycline available in mexico rintis usaha dari nolvadex tomar meio viagra 50mg is it possible to buy viagra in brisbane australia buy cialis buy doxycycline tablets no prescription 14 day supply come faccio a capire se il mio uomo usa il viagra australian customs seizing viagra metformin and femara success stories much does cost accutane treatment plan lasix no prescription united states can you take maca and clomid together lasix 20 mg and mineral excretion can you get high off ciprofloxacin hydrochloride 500 mg generic finasteride or propecia cost cipro eye drops does the propecia generic brand work how much cost for a 50 mg viagra doxycycline gonorrhea chlamydia treatment nolvadex in capsule form glucophage xr 750 mg cena sales of cialis since launch cialis diference betwing 5 mg and 10 mg is it safe to take viagra if taking simvastatin bid or buy johannesburg viagra 50 mg viagra uk for sale real viagra montreal viagra buy online nz passport cipro antibiotic for sale metformin xr dosing viagra india generic where to buy cialis in edmonton viagra shops in nairobi metformina 1000 mg para que sirve buy viagra in malmo going off zoloft safely 5 mg of cialis will stay in your system 48 hrs how much viagra cost in hyderabad states that have insurance for viagra bula do ilosone 500 mg metformin where can i buy viagra on the gold coast buy viagra uk using paypal can you buy propecia at rite aid donde puedo comprar el priligy viagra will be generic liquid clomid numb tongue experience with generic tadalafil prednisone 40 mg dose is inderal over the counter will zoloft really work is cialis worth it to buy sildenafil how training specialist jobs in webster texas accutane acne treatments what is the shelf life of cialis that is cut in half where to buy generic viagra in manila come usare priligy 60mg safe alternative to finasteride clomid taken at night eli lilly puerto rico cialis generic zithromax without a prescription online tadalafil 20 mg bioequivalence is there over the counter drugs that work like viagra cialis side effect in urdu is viagra legally on sale portugal viagra viagra uk sales online uk pharmacy that sells clomid and nolvadex zovirax or generic what is better cialis or viagra alopam 15 mg bivirkninger av prednisolone can you take clomid and fertility blend together can you order prednisone online liberado generico do viagra safe dosage of metformin for weight loss prednisone 20 mg in acute sinusitis cialis generic in uk viagra lml lyrics the best time to have metformin what is herb viagra zoloft use in early pregnancy dual fusion nike womens reviews on viagra price comparison viagra and cialis safe accutane dosage viagra e ponte de safena is buying viagra witout a script legal zithromax no rx puedo comprar sildenafil sin receta cheap cialis tadalafil 20 mg sildenafil generico para mujeres clomid in bali price of cialis per pill at walmart cialis 20 mg online pomada generica da zovirax cost of doxycycline vs malarone proper dosage of clomid 8oo mg sildenafil citrate comprar viagra generico en valencia viagra how long it stay in your system devon watches for sale in uk zithromax will accutane get rid of oily skin safe take ciprofloxacin metronidazole how many doxycycline to take for uti priligy available in ireland best online viagra pharmacy best price for viagra mobile al fibras capilares donde comprar viagra doxycycline hyclate 100 mg for acne gewacalm 10 mg dosierung viagra unit rey de order generic viagra mens health products clomid for men 50 mg 3 times a day tadalafil 40 mg safe ed is preseed safe to use with clomid diflucan 100 mg for thrush farmacia online espana cialis canada zoloft generic serdep 50 sertraline 50 mg tablets generic zoloft 5mg prednisone for pinched nerve in dog can u masterbate while on clomid how long does effect of viagra last viagra generico online contrareembolso does in hurt to be on diflucan 1 pill a week forever lasix 40 mg hunde where to order cheap viagra sildenafil price ukg selling viagra legal generic accutane baownbeuv ciprofloxacin brand names in philippines bestraling bijwerkingen prednisone ampicillin iv in pregnancy viagra cialis in qatar buying accutane online uk want to buy prednisone cialis coupon discounts doxycycline for lyme disease treatment diflucan 150 mg costa comprar cialis original madrid can 25 mg zoloft cause serotonin syndrome zithromax 500mg price in manila prix du cialis 20mg en belgique clavulin bd 875 mg generico de cialis how much is accutane generic cheap cialis los angeles Kiwipolitico » Blog Archive » The Reluctant Ringnut

The Reluctant Ringnut

datePosted on 20:23, March 21st, 2011 by Lew

Since the 5.1 magnitude aftershock on the evening of March 20, various Ringnuts — that is, people who take Ken Ring’s moonie earthquake “predictions” seriously — have been saying things along the lines of “SEE ITS TRUE HE TOLD YOU AND YOU DIDN’T LISTEN!” Their ranks include people who really should know better, who’re revealing that when faced with a bit of smoke and a couple of mirrors they’re as credulous as the next rube.

Such as Brian Edwards, who asks “So – was Ken Ring right or wrong?”, and after arraying a series of banal and rigourless equivocations, attempts to turn scepticism on its head by appealing to the old charlatan’s fallback: cosmic uncertainty, man. We don’t really know anything, so everything’s as good as everything else, man.

The trouble is that Brian’s banal and rigourless equivocations — I’ll not repeat them here — are of a piece with those issued by Ken Ring, and that’s the whole point. Brian tries to have a lazy bob each way on the question of whether Ring is right or wrong. Ring has a bob in each of a dozen different ways, from earthquakes of unspecified magnitude across a very wide area, or possibly a weather event of unspecified nature, occurring in a very broad span of time; or possibly nothing at all. The predictive uselessness these banal and rigourless equivocations have been very thoroughly thrashed out in the past month — notably by David Winter, Alison Campbell [edit to add: and Grant Jacobs]. The punchline is that it would have been a shock if his “prediction”, such as it was, had not “come true”.

What separates the Ringnuts (both the reluctant, who claim the mantle of scepticism, and the True Believers) from the rest of us is the realisation that, given the nature of Ring’s “predictions” it is impossible to answer Brian’s question, “Was Ken Ring right or wrong?”. Ken Ring doesn’t give us a testable prediction, so we can’t even get to the point of assessing its rightness or wrongness. Ken Ring is neither right nor wrong. He doesn’t even get to the point of being wrong, since he hasn’t said anything meaningful.

Given all of this, being wrong would be a considerable improvement for Ken Ring.


12 Responses to “The Reluctant Ringnut”

  1. Grant on March 21st, 2011 at 21:15

    Ring hasn’t presented his model formally, so that’s not there to test properly. Having said that you can partially examine the meaningfulness of his predictions, which David Winter was doing for example, and some of his predictions are self-evidentally meaningless as Alison and I and seemingly countless others have pointed out.

    My own grief at Brian’s article is that it works by assuming we can take words at face value, giving each set of words equal merit, rather than looking to what substance, if any, they have supporting them. (My comment over there, written before your’s appeared, hasn’t been posted yet, perhaps because of it’s length. Admittedly it did get a bit long and I wondered if I ought to have written a blog post like you did!)

  2. Lew on March 21st, 2011 at 23:45

    Grant, thanks. I actually read the March 7 article (making much the same argument) at the time, but couldn’t recall the source. I’ve now added it to the list.

    (A more mischevious sort might have suggested that, whatever happened, Ringnuts would claim it as a positive — and then taken credit for predicting this outcome two weeks ahead of time.)


  3. lyndon on March 22nd, 2011 at 10:33

    One gathers Ring did make one or two specific predictions for the 20th. He just unmade them in between times.

  4. Me Too on March 22nd, 2011 at 15:00

    Although I take your point that mostly his predictions are vague and aren’t testable, this prediction was very specific as to size, location, date and cause.

    Ring got it wrong because he said March 20th would see an earthquake ‘for the history books’. Not any old earthquake, but a really really big one. He also said people should avoid Christchurch that weekend.

    It didn’t happen.

    There were aftershocks, just as there were aftershocks on many other days (and will continue to be). But apart from that, nothing of note. And certainly nothing to leave town for.

  5. Lew on March 22nd, 2011 at 15:18

    Me Too, that was one of his predictions which he later backed away from. There are many examples of the same. On aggregate, there’s nothing that he definitively stuck to which is clear enough to test. The three articles linked in the OP cover this in considerable detail, I urge you to read them.

    On the other hand, the Japanese authorities released a forecast on March 13: 70% likelihood of aftershocks of 7.0 or greater in the following three days; and 50% of aftershocks of 7.0 in the three days after that.

    No aftershocks of that magnitude occurred in that window (there were several above 6.0, but none close to 7.0) so they were wrong — but their forecast was specific enough that we can at least say that about it.


  6. Grant on March 22nd, 2011 at 19:22

    Very kind of you to add me. The two main players were Alison and David, but I won’t object! :-) Several others at sciblogs pitched in too. I wrote in Johhny-come-lately fashion as I was bothered by a few things I saw people saying in various discussion forums.

    About my previous point. By ‘model’, I mean the underlying mathematics or whatever his “predictions” are based on. My impression is that Ring’s “model” is more a collection of tables, which he uses much in the fashion as someone reading tarot cards might. They don’t “give an answer” so much as he “interprets” them. But, of course, that’s only the impression I have.

  7. Todd on March 24th, 2011 at 00:12

    I think attributing the dynamic to one man and attacking his persona is rather silly!

  8. Jonny on March 24th, 2011 at 09:57

    Last September, Marcus Lush asked Ken Ring when the next big quake would be for Christchurch. Ring responded ‘March 20’. Ring was, in fact, wrong. I understand what Lew is saying, but if you are looking to test the accuracy of Ring’s statement, it’s not that he ‘doesn’t get to the point of being wrong’, it’s that he’s wrong. Regardless of his methods, he did indeed give a ‘testable prediction’.

  9. Lew on March 24th, 2011 at 10:04

    Jonny, same objection as to Me Too: you can’t cherry-pick predictions in isolation.

    Ring has indeed made concrete, testable predictions at times — but these are inevitably (and were in the March 20 case) superceded by clarifications, partial retractions, and general waffle. If what he’d said to Marcus Lush (or to Aussie TV stations) was the final claim, then sure — test it. But it’s not.

    The sheer volume and variability of his claims is part of the hedge. If it comes true on March 20, he can point to the Lush interview. If it some true on another day he can point to something else. And so on.


  10. Jonny on March 24th, 2011 at 10:44

    Yes, he does undo his predictions under the guise of ‘new shit has come to light’. What surprises me is that his weather books have sold for years despite being easily discredited first time around. Perhaps he should learn to keep things obscure by not bringing ink and paper into things… Anyway, those who In have heard claiming Ring was ‘right’ were mostly referring to the September-era predictions, so isolating those statements as ‘the prediction’ in question I think retains validity. So the full answer is something along the lines of ‘That prediction is in itself wrong, and was essentially invalidated by its author before time’.

  11. Lew on March 24th, 2011 at 10:52

    Right with you on that. And now that you mention it, I reckon it’s a point which hasn’t been well enough made in discussion of this topic.

    Always preferable to string someone up with their own words.


  12. bradluen on March 28th, 2011 at 15:44

    Late and tangential, but:

    On the other hand, the Japanese authorities released a forecast on March 13: 70% likelihood of aftershocks of 7.0 or greater in the following three days; and 50% of aftershocks of 7.0 in the three days after that.

    No aftershocks of that magnitude occurred in that window (there were several above 6.0, but none close to 7.0) so they were wrong…

    No. Put another way, they forecasted a 30% chance of 7.0 aftershocks in the first three days and a 50% chance of 7.0 aftershocks in the next three days, and the observations were consistent with this.

    With probabilistic forecasts, you need a large sample size before you can do a severe test.

Leave a Reply

Name: (required)
Email: (required) (will not be published)