How to guess the political will of the country
Posted on 17:42, June 26th, 2009 by Anita
Logic says that the recent Key/National scandals and a week budget have got to be damaging National’s popularity, yet the polls are barely moving. l’ve been thinking about why this is and I have come up with three possibilities (others very welcome!)
- Outside the beltway no-one actually cares – none of the issues resonate with swing voters. Worth and Mt Albert were a side show for politics geeks, and no-one holds National responsible for the economy tanking.
- People are turning off National but they’re not turning to anything else. National may be losing its gloss, but Labour doesn’t look any more appetizing than it did in November last year.
- The election is a long way away and people will stick to their 2008 preference for a bit longer.it would seem fickle to switch allegiances so soon, and perhaps people feel they need to give Key a little longer to show his true mettle.
How, in the face of polls which simply ask how you would vote (a lagging indicator of mood), can we really judge the mood of the country?